It's hard not to spend time thinking about Iran and Israel given all of the current build up on this. Here's another installment:
One of the Stratfor research "findings" (culled from the Wikileaks stockpile) is that Israel claimed its upcoming strike on Iran would be "catastrophic enough" to cause a regime change. This claim was made both to dissuade Iran from going forward with its program, physically eliminating their ability to move forward with the program, and persuade the US to act instead of Israel.
Running through all of the potential scenarios, only one emerges that makes sense.
A strike on Iranian oil facilities. A strike so devastating that it disrupts all of its oil production, currently at 4 million barrels a day.
The logic of this is pretty clear: any strike on facilities wouldn't have a high likelihood of failure. At most, it would only delay the program by months. Further, politically, there may not be a possibility for the second, third and fourth strikes necessary to keep kicking the ball down the road.
The strike that can do it one go is one that causes a massive economic failure that both a) creates the chance of regime change, or b) at a minimum starves the program of the copious amounts of funding it needs to keep going (it's very expensive to move forward) for many years into the future.
The only way to do that, given Israel's capabilities, is a strike on Iranian oil facilities. To knock them out of production for a year or more. The loss of its 4 m barrels of production.
How to do that? Drones.
My thinking: lots and lots of ship and air launched drones. Drones that you can make in secret, easy to transport/launch, are inexpensive enough build in bulk, and extremely accurate. Likely, stripped down Harops.
Why are drones siginficant here? Israeli aircraft can't reach Iran w/o dangerous overflights, tankers, and light payloads. Once there, they wouldn't be able to do much. Cyberwarfare? Perhaps a little. That's overhyped.
The reality is that the Iranian oil operation is big. It's target rich. To hit everything you would need to hit, from offshore to onshore, would require hundreds and hundreds of strikes. The only way to do that is to use drones as a poor man's cruise missile fired from offshore transports (from just outside Persian Gulf).
If this actually occurs, we are going to see drone development go into afterburner.