Global guerrillas is one of the few places in the world where you will find deep thinking on the theoretical foundations of warfare.
It's my belief that warfare, aka organized violence, is undergoing punctuated change due to robotics/drones and other technologies of superempowerment. That's not a good thing since I believe that warfare defines the path of development for everything else (economics, politics, culture). It makes certain paths forward possible, and closes others. A rapid change in warfare means a rapid change in everything else.
Here's a tiny example of that change in action.
Robotic control systems are going to show up everywhere with increasing frequency. Particularly as a replacement for suicide bombers. Here's why. Suicide bombers are functionally a poor man's weapon system. Using a cold calculus:
- the suicide bomber's brain is an inexpensive substitute for
- the complex/expensive terminal guidance system of a missile.
The suicide bomber's function boils down to bringing the bomb to the target, the closer the better. In most cases, the bomber can also decide when to detonate it, which makes their brain/eye/finger system a replacement for a target radar/proximity fuse system.
However, this isn't a simple substitution. Suicide bombers are difficult to recruit and train. People simply aren't naturally inclined to kill themselves. They need to be carefully selected, motivated, and trained to do it. So, that's the bottleneck (even paying the relatives of disabled/elderly "insurance" payments hasn't sped up the process much) to expansion of suicide terrorism.
So, what happens when the costs of a terminal guidance systems become inexpensive and easy to acquire? They will replace suicide bombers in all but the most unusual of environments (airplane cabins -- although drone bombs + airplanes in takeoff phase is a pretty scary alternative).
This is going on right now. Robotic control systems are now inexpensive, accurate, and autonomous as we have seen with drones. This means that the costs of a robotic control system are already well within the budget of a small group. Further, their functionality makes them perfect for terrorist activities (the targeting of populations and symbols).
Example? Here's a video that turns a car into a remote control drone that can be used to deliver big bombs to checkpoints. It even features an interview with the guerrilla entrepreneur that put it together. It has the feel of an anti silicon valley (don't confuse it with silicone valley, which is in southern CA, near LA) Scoble interview, with an entrepreneur that just landed $5 m in funding.