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« How to Roll Out Dronet | Main | How an Internet of Drones will be Built: Think 2,400 baud »

Wednesday, 09 January 2013

Dronet: Think Interactive TV (iTV)

Something as big as Dronet (and Internet of drones) isn't going to emerge overnight, fully functional, for a variety of reasons.

A big reason is that it's too risky for a big company to invest the billions required to lock up a section of it.  

Here's why, by way of a story. 

Back in 1994, before I became Forrester's first Internet analyst, I did a bit of consulting for a big Telco on the potential of interactive television (iTV).  

They were stuck.  The money it required to build an iTV network was huge and all of it had to be invested upfront before it made any money.

Visually, the investment required looked like a multi-billion dollar step function:

Step

Worse, it was unclear how they would make any money once they made the investment.  Most of the new business opportunities were entrepreneurial.  

So, naturally, they decided to forgo the investment/ in iTV and focus on being good custodians of a public utility ;->  That fortuitous turn of events gave the Internet time to emerge.

We're going to see the same thing with Dronet.  The big companies that could lock up portions of it won't, and as a result, we'll get time to roll it out P2P first.  

Keep inventing the future,

JOHN ROBB

Posted by on Wednesday, 09 January 2013 at 12:07 PM |

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