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February 17, 2006


phil jones

There's a problem with markets for any kind of natural resource : price doesn't reflect how much of the resource there is, just how efficiently you are consuming it.

If you manage to pump it faster, price goes down, and everyone consumes more. If you can't, price goes up, and that incentivates people to look for more efficient ways to pump it. But price can't give you any information about it's actual scarcity.


I'm no expert, but a collapse from 2mbpd to less than 600kbpd in the space of 3 years is an unprecedentedly catastrophic depletion rate - so I suspect that these are very pessimistic scenarios indeed.

Of course, if we're going to introduce market mechanisms into the equation, then PEMEX should drastically ramp down its production to better manage the depletion and benefit from the upside price swing that should result. They should also be backing other peak oilers in OPEC over production cuts.

Carlos  Ramirez

i'm no expert on the matter but the meteor struck at today's yucat√°n peninsula 65 million years ago as far as i remember.

From this, stem two questions:

1. Cantarell sits 70miles SSW of the outer rim of the crater. So waht are we talking about here... another fragment of the meteor?

2. isn't 65 million years very little time for the formation of oil? i thought it was formed in the 150-220 million years window.

Tia for the corrections i might receive.

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