Iran Kicks Bush in the Teeth

NYT: "We will expand uranium enrichment to industrial scale at Natanz," Muhammad Saeedi, deputy head of Iran's atomic energy organization, was quoted as saying by the ISNA news agency, referring to Iran's main enrichment facility. He added that Iran had told the International Atomic Energy Agency that Iran will start operating 3,000 centrifuges by late 2006 with further expansion to 54,000 centrifuges.

The net result is that unless this is all a diplomatic bluff (I don't think it is), then an attack is inevitable. Further, the time scale has just been drastically shortened.

Comments

[b]

Was thinking about that yesterday:

Bush needs the real orgasm for that war just in time for the fall-election.

The Persians are trying to outrun him now. Nice try.

As one guy says:
"However I believe there is very little time: an attack may well happen within the next 2 weeks, while Congress is in recess. There is no advantage to those that want it to happen in waiting."
http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?itemid=10071

[Eric Anderson]

April 12 (Bloomberg) -- Iran, which is defying United Nations Security Council demands to cease its nuclear program, may be capable of making a nuclear bomb within 16 days if it goes ahead with plans to install thousands of centrifuges at its Natanz plant, a U.S. State Department official said.

``Natanz was constructed to house 50,000 centrifuges,'' Stephen Rademaker, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation, told reporters today in Moscow. ``Using those 50,000 centrifuges they could produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon in 16 days.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=awSzbHpjozAo

[Observer]

So how long will it take them to build the remaining 49836 centrifuges?

[Eric Anderson]

About 12 minutes!!!

[John Robb]

About 4 years. 3,000 this year and 6-10,000 thereafter. Throughout the entire process they will be refinining uranium. Not sure if it scales linearly, but if it does...

[Eric Anderson]

Though not addressing this exact question (t - 50K), ArmsControlWonk says:

So, the real question, however, is how quickly Iran could assemble and operate 1,500 centrifuges in a crash program to make enough HEU for one bomb (say 15-20 kg).

Albright and Hinderstein have created a notional timeline for such a program:

* Assemble 1,300-1,600 centrifuges. Assuming Iran starts assembling centrifuges at a rate of 70-100/month, Iran will have enough centrifuges in 6-9 months.

* Combine centrifuges into cascades, install control equipment, building feed and withdrawal systems, and test the Fuel Enrichment Plant. 1 year

* Enrich enough HEU for a nuclear weapon. 1 year

* Weaponize the HEU. A “few” months.

Total time to the bomb—about three years.

http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/945/iran-focus-part-1-how-close-is-iran-to-the-bomb

The post briefs well (to a layman) the significant technical challenges and attendant timelines.

One worthwhile difference between ACW's estimate and Mr Robb's is the centrifuge production rate. Even if Mr Robb's 3000 per annum is high, ACW estimates that 1500 produce sufficient material for a nuclear weapon.

The post gives the impression of a linear scale:

"The output of a centrifuge is measured in “seperative work units”—a measure of the amount of work required to enrich a given amount (product) uranium...Each of Iran’s centrifuges has an output between 2-3 SWU/year. Iran plans a that the full scale FEP at Natanz will house 50,000 centrifuges, giving the plant a capacity of 150,000 SWU/year."

[John Robb]

Eric, thanks. Regardless, there doesn't seem to be much speculation needed here. Iran says they will have 3,000 operational by the end of the year (which implies a faster production rate than ACWonk postulated) -- perhaps they ramped production of centrifuges prior to mastering the cycle. Regardless, this is a very short time frame.

[Eric Anderson]

Double true.

[dennis]

A little question asked by Pat Buchanan recently: where exactly does Bush get the authorization to go to war with Iran, without action from Congress?

[John Robb]

The retort: is a bombing campaign a war or a police action?

[Andy]

The Iranians will consider it an act of war no matter what the 21st Century "Do-Nothing" congress decides. That's what matters.

[John Robb]

Correct.

[Robert Cassidy]

The other bit that I'm not seeing reported (maybe I just missed it) is that enriching uranium for power is WAY easier than enriching for weapons. Reactor grade uranium is 6% or so enriched depending on the type of reactor - maybe as high as 12%-15% for some fast experimental reactors. Weapons grade is 90%+.

Not only does it take 15x longer to go from 6% to 90%, it gets harder the more pure you need to go - the less dense components separate out faster than the more dense and so near the end of the process you have a lot of dense material that you need to isolate - and that takes LOTS of energy and LOTS of time and things start breaking much more often. An analogy: going 200MPH isn't 4x harder than going 50MPH - it's 8x or 16x harder.

There are two considerations here:

1) Where is the power coming from to do this enrichment? You effectively need a nuclear power plant to drive that many centrifuges for that long. We used the TVA to power our first efforts, and then we used reactors to do followup work. So the easy means to shut down the operation is to just shut down the power source.

2) I don't see why Iran would want to build weapons. If they want them, they can in all likelihood buy them from other parties like N. Korea or Pakistan with a greater likelihood of success. They certainly can afford to buy one. Once they have the bomb, they know we won't touch them and advertising for 5 years that they're building one will lead to an inevitable response. I think this is more a response to preparing for a future that they're all to aware of - their oil has a limited ability to drive the economy. They know it's running out. It might be 50 years, but building nuclear plants takes time and the less they draw off of their own resources, the more they can sell to pay for the build-out. This looks much more like an investment in their future than an act of aggression to me.

[Robert Cassidy]

Re: Bush's authority.

It was granted to him just after 9/11. He has full authorization to do whatever he needs to do to win the war on terror. His case against Iran is stronger than his case for Iraq. There's no question that Iran has supported Hamas - they've admitted to it. There's no question that they're enriching uranium, they've admitted to it to. It's only the intermediate bit of building a bomb and giving it to Hamas that Bush needs to hint towards.

No, I think he could do this tomorrow without telling Congress. Even if Congress disagrees with that, Bush certainly believes it and what are they going to do once it's done. He's on a mission from God remember. The people will rise up against their leader for putting them in a position to be pre-emptively attacked - just as we sought Bush's removal from office after 9/11...

[deteodoru]

As we all know, the GW Bush ship of state that was so
hermetically sealed through 2001-2002,has come to
suffer so many leaks that it is sinking and the rats
are deserting it, as the saying goes. I try to keep
what comes my way to myself until at least one open
source intimates the same thing. With NSA trying to
make-up for the security specifics which it is not
competent to do with the broad sweeps it need not do,
it is only Las Vegas odds that my "leakes" will
otherwise be caught. Besides, context to give meanings
to scoops will have to come from far more "in" people
than me.

Please allow me to put before you information coming
to my ear regularly from Wash DC little birds, hitting
me in both the front and back of my head: Mr. Bush was
never in FULL control of his government. All through
his years of formation, his caring father sought to
keep his son confident by literally hiring others to
do his worrying for him. Thus, as a young man with a
scandalous record and no other accomplishments to
compensate for it, Mr. Bush turned himself over to
some others, leaving it to them to worry about his
political career. As for his existing/missing past,
Mr. Bush totally obliterated it with the blinding
glare of his Christian Salvation. It's not that he
chose this task for himself but rather that his
professional "worriers" did. What this has produced is
a most amiable and unassuming mediocrity who is not in
the slightest ashamed, worried or in need to
compensate for who and what he is. I cannot tell you
how much thousands of influential Republicans were
totally charmed by that in him. It was his "I am what
I am and I'm not worried about it" type of even keel
"compassionate conservative" image that is so
unassuming that made so many of us see him as the
President who will end stress in America.

A group of foreign policy experts calling themselves
the "Vulcans" gathered around him and found him so
soothing that they often had to remember that they
were dealing with the future President of the United
States. Because of the relationship with his dad, he
chose to go with some of the people among the
Republican luminaries who least got along with his
father. To that end Cheney was key and Scowcroft
something of an anti-Christ. As Cheney and Rumsfeld
filled their offices with neocons, they liberated Mr.
Bush more and more from worries. Karl Rove took care
of politics and by the end of 2002 had achieved great
electoral successes.

At that time, the Vulcans pushed two issues: (1)
leapfrog West Europe and build a new NATO around East
Europe; then, tie the old Europe to this vital new
Europe NATO. (2) Encircle China so as to force it to
behave properly in trade. The neocons wanted a Mideast
focus, as did their representatives in power, the
worriers, Cheney and Rumsfeld but the Vulcans ruled
then and this was not to be. 9/11 ended the Vulcans'
agenda. The rest is history. But since that date, so
exclusively theirs did Rumsfeld, Cheney and the
neocons consider the Bush presidency-- that Bush ended
still ended up with this "What me worry?" way about
him that it made you think that no matter what you did
he would never take it as stepping on his toes; one
never felt ill-at-ease bulldozing policies (unless, as
in the case of Sec. Treasury O'Neill, Cheney deemed
you un-kindred-spirit). As the US stumbled into a
seeming success in Afghanistan, the neocons never
could accept Bush's reluctance to go to war in Iraq as
an obstacle. The Pentagon proceeded to present the
President with a fait accompli and he just went with
it, following his worriers instead of worrying that
they were taking over his foreign policy. From this
bunch for example, I kept hearing that Powell was
there to make a couple of speeches as Sec. of State
and then it is good-by. In fact, when in his last
meeting with Mr. Bush Powell warned him to worry about
a Cheney-Rumsfeld takeover of his foreign policy,
Powell failed to appreciate how NOT worrying was the
important operative term for the President.

Bush wanted to take over the White House in his second
term but was faced with: "O.K., we'll leave and take
the Christian Right with us, then you can worry about
what to do next." And so, to avoid worry, Bush
continued as prisoner of his first term. I am reminded
of Brezhnev asking his Pravda editors-speech writers:
what is this "Brezhnev Doctrine"? They urged him not
worry about it and just deliver the speech. He did.
And so, the next time the Presidium met it had to make
policies in accord with the Brezhnev policy he himself
has enunciated. That's how you get policy by
speechwriters. Ditto Bush!

But now worry has infected Bush, what with the polls,
the Plame case, Iraq, Katrina, oil prices etc, etc.
And so, Bush can no longer escape worrying. His only
option for avoiding worry is to return to the able men
of his dad. Swallowing pride is easier than worrying
for him because Bush is not conceited.

I tell all this because, if I am right, and I wouldn't
type all this if I were not confident, Bush will
decrease the Iraq conflict and will not attack Iran
because that's the only way he can avoid worrying.
Israel has read him very well and realizes that it
better work out something with HAMAS and the other
Arabs if it doesn't want to be a source of worry to
him. Sometimes big decisions are made for very small
reasons, that's what makes history so much more
exciting than science or study of the cosmos.

Daniel E. Teodoru