John Hagel parses Dyson's interpretation of Goldhaber's attention economy. The upshot: people want other people to pay attention to them. I suspect we will see some people engage in a Darwinian struggle for attention online. This analysis is probably too narrow. The motivations for why people blog will change. Their motivations will be as varied as the real world.My personal arc (over 5 years of blogging) is as follows:
1) reluctantly started blogging.
2) found I enjoyed it.
3) was ranked for a bit of time in the top 100 blogs. This was nice. It was also nice to have a high Google rank. That partly faded because a) I didn't care about it and b) the level of competition rose quickly.
4) found something more useful. An open online identity (my name is on the blog) yielded work, contacts, and recognition that anonymity doesn't provide. That benefit doesn't require a high ranking to accomplish.
5) found that the blog is as much for me as anyone else.
6) enjoy the response that other people have to my thinking. As long as there a few fellow travelers out there with me, that is reason enough to write.