Looks like the Hez have prepared the ground of southern Lebanon like the area at the edges of the Kursk bubble in WW2 (which the Russians built 12 miles deep, if I remember correctly). Rushing it with tanks for a classic blitz wasn't possible (much too risky and it would put Israel back into a full guerrilla war even if it had succeeded). So, the Israelis opted for airpower (to suppress missiles and force a political settlement) plus a slow (too slow, but that is due to the IDFs inability to accept the casualties required for this type of operation) and methodical push to infiltrate and eliminate the couple of miles of fortifications. Both options are going badly since airpower is backfiring politically (plus being unable to stop the bombardment) and the infiltration is being met by stiff resistance. Further, slowness in conventional war within the modern context, invites political settlement that locks in defeat.
PS: Billmon has a great post on the current situation.
It looks like Israel has lost this one and there is no way to salvage it. The "bomber Harris" strategy defeats the attackers moral position. Risk averse ground troops are looking impotent.
Hezbollah can now sit back, hold a bit of ground and just wait. They have no need to negotiate. As longer it takes as better for their position. I wonder how Israel wants to win anything by this.
The Israeli cabinet and IDF staff will probably be asked to resign over this desaster.
BTW: Comments on Billmon's pieces are welcome at Moon of Alabama
Posted by: b | July 24, 2006 at 08:09 AM
Some interesting photos:
http://abaleboosteh.blogspot.com/
Posted by: Dimitar Vesselinov | July 25, 2006 at 04:26 PM
I talked to a friend today who has very good sources on the Israeli side, and some sources in the Bush I realist crowd, although of course they're not in government any more.
He says it is now generally understood by all (particularly the Arab regimes, who bailed out today) that Israel is losing. They're freaking out about this, of course, because they're afraid that everybody and their Palestinian uncle is going to get it in their minds that they can take a piece of Zionist entity.
So Plan B is to try to "make something happen" on the ground -- although what, exactly, isn't clear. Today it was killing a low-level Hez leader (in a border village they supposedly secured three days ago) and pumping him up as a big catch (shades of Zarqawi's 28,000 "lieutenants".)
But I'm getting the impression from the official propaganda that the IDF is really struggling - they keep "securing" the same objectives again and again.
This is beginning to look like Israel's Iraq -- which is convenient since Lebanon was also Israel's Vietnam.
Posted by: billmon | July 26, 2006 at 12:28 AM
They are right. Israel is going to widen the conflict to Syria and Iran.
Posted by: John Robb | July 26, 2006 at 06:20 AM