Iran: temporary suspension of enrichment?

Interesting diplomatic play going on. Leaking the terms of the deal in order to tank the process. Regardless, Iran is doing a good job at dividing the US from its EU allies (and even many in the State Department). WT. Bush is getting totally played.

Iran is close to an agreement that would include a suspension of uranium enrichment but wants the deal to include a provision that the temporary halt be kept secret, according to Bush administration officials... Disclosure of talks on the secret element of the arrangement comes as Mr. Solana and Mr. Larijani are set to meet today or tomorrow in Europe when the deal could be completed, said officials opposed to the deal, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Comments

[bobw]

Bush is getting "played" in a game that he isnt really serious about anyway. Bush's negotiations are like Israel's road map - a charade that deflects attention from what's really going on.

Many sober folks are now convinced the attack on Iran is already underway, in which case negotiations, or sanctions, are irrelevant. The strongest argument that the attack will happen is that Bush is desperate to avoid a Democratic victory in November, and will take this risk to head it off.

[Ali T]

It is a very delicate political game that is going on between the two sides. Ever since the new Iranian president took power, he realized the Iranian regime lacks sufficient internal support. As such, he picked a radical route in which he called for the destruction of Israel and capitalizing on the Iranian national pride regarding the nuclear issue. By calling for the destruction of Israel, he put Iran in a very uncomfortable position, which at first made a lot of Iranians angry at the new president. The Iranian people started feeling the threat of US invading Iran. With that together with the nuclear issue which is supported by almost all Iranians (even those against the regime), he has started to have people unite and rally behind him. So far, Ahmadinejad has been successful and US has played into his plans.

Another unsuccessful game by Israel and US was the war with Lebanon in an attempt to dismantle Hezbollah as the Iranian proxy. Furthermore, they hoped for Iran to get involved, in which case the US would had been "justified" to attack Iran. The Iranian side did not fall into that trap.

So far, Iran has demonstrated their understanding that the real war is for the hearts and minds of people, not a military war. With that mindset, they have been able to grow their influence in Afghanistan and Iraq. Recently, their influence in Lebanon has grown as Hezbollah's popularity has increased.

And lastly, US is trying their best for the negotiations to halt, quickly try a few sanctions, and move to a military option. Only time will show how successful their tactics.

[bobw]

Thanks, Ali T. You summarize a complicated situation very well. What we dont know is, if he is defeated on the "realistic" level, will Bush and/or Israel go ahead anyway. Many people think Bush and the neocons at least are desparate enough to try.

[still working it out]

That's a beautiful play from Iran. It takes away Bush's ability to use Iran as a domestic issue. He cannot claim credit for stopping Iranian enrichment, and he cannot rally support by verbally attacking Iran without alienating his EU allies. Its fun watching international politics being played by grown ups. Alot more interesting.