Coercing Geogria: Who's more vulnerable?

Georgia or Russia? I suspect that since the entire Russian state is predicated on resource exports through extremely long pipelines, Russia is playing with fire by provoking Georgia. David is in a much better position than Goliath on this -- all they need to do is think outside of the box.

Comments

[b]

There is no Russian pipeline through Georgia, so any attack would have to be on Russian ground.

There is also no rebellion against Russia in Georgia, half of Georgia's people are Russian, speak Russian and want to get away from Georgia.

The western trained and approved Saakashvili, is playing with fire here, but that fire is likely to burn him, not Putin. This "revolution" will likely end like the Ukraine.

Nobody will come to help Saakashvili then. Europe's home heating depends on Russian natgas and Bush has caved in to Putin on Georgia already.
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2006/10/who_blinked_fir.html

also:
/quote
Solana said Georgia had responsibilities.

"It should not act in a manner which is not within the canons of what a country with responsibilities should do."

Solana rejected calls from Georgia for an EU border monitoring scheme like that in Moldova.

"For the moment its is difficult to do that," he said, adding: "I have to be honest with you that the scheme of Moldova is not working very well either."/endquote
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L04615631.htm

BTW: Two can play the game - some Spednaz could take a detailed look at the BTC pipeline too.

[londamium]

In this instance it's Georgia that is the vulnerable party. If you cast your mind back to the earlier part of this year, during the extreme cold snap that afflicted Russia, Eastern Europe and the Caucases, you'll possibly dimly recall the sabotage of the gas pipeline which supplied ALL of Georgia's home heating supplies. This lasted for 4 days and was the source of so much anxiety that there were even rapid reaction delegations from Teheran turning up with the offer of emergency supplies ( which must have had subcommandante Cheney's blood pressure at record levels.)

Whilst the Russians can simply stop pumping gas to Georgia any time they choose, the sabotage approach is more appropriate as it's formally deniable. I doubt that the citizens of Georgia are any happier at the prospect of freezing to death in winter than anyone else.

There are simply no alternatives on the horizon for Georgia until they can get a gas pipeline from Iran built; the only other alternative is to switch to electric home heating powered by some of that oil that's flowing through the BTC - although the Georgians can't actually afford it, and those pesky Europeans that actually paid for the damn thing to supply the Italian, British and French domestic markets might get a tad peeved if the Georgians start going Ukraine on them.

I doubt that the Georgian security services are much cop at the pipeline sabotage game, and the government is not exactly flush with the kind of cash to contract to the professionals for a spot of payback against Russia's export infrastructure; I doubt that Shakashvilii can afford to annoy his European "allies" too much anyway. This just leaves the enticing prospect of an alliance with Chechen separatists and/or Al Qaeda.

It's amazing when you think about it, but the energy geopolitics of the past 5-10 years really do make you wonder about that US-Al Qaeda tactical alliance thing!

[John Robb]

That's exactly the point. Georgia's back is against the wall. Two small teams, or something organic drawing from the 1 m plus Georgian expats living in Russia, could make this much more expensive for Russia than it is worth (particularly since market dynamics and state power are comingled). My estimate is that it would only take a couple of dozen men operating inside Russia to cut oil and gas production by 25-30% on a sustained basis. This would also serve to wake up the EU to the issue.

The moral center isn't with the Russian people, it is with those that value the stock of Gazprom and Transneft.

[londamium]

John, you're dreaming. Russia's export infrastructure is both massive and dispersed over a geographically vast area - and a couple of dozen men would make barely a dent in it before they got caught.

Considering that the highly competent, well-armed and numerous Chechen separatists have yet to achieve even 1% of this - in spite of a track record of sophisticated mass-casualty attacks and pulling off tough-to-do airline downings - you are massively overstating the capacity of Georgia to activate a network, even a small one, when it has has neither the trained/committed personnel nor the logistical and intelligence resources to back this idea up.

The threat that you describe exists in reverse - there is a very large Russian presence in Georgia, as B has noted.

Ultimately, there is a "political risk" calculation that you ignore - Georgia is dependent on the good will of Europe, and to a lesser extent the US, for its survival as a state that is "semi-independent" of Russia - and both Europe and the US are anxious for Russian hydrocarbons to flow at an acceptable price; this means that Georgia has to carefully triangulate between three different sets of external interests, which all agree on one basic thing - don't fuck with the pipelines.

[b]

Jamestown thinks Putin wants "regime change" and thinks he will get it. I agree.

http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2371503

One week Saakashvili was in Washington DC, the next in Brussel to get more near to NATO. The next thing he does he takes 4 Russian officers prisoners for "espionage".

Someone gave him some great dumb words of assurance either in DC (likely) or Brussel (not likely) that he could play rough with the Russians. But when he did do so, everybody took cover.

Putin calls Bush and tells him to press Saakashvili. Bush does so. The EU (see Solana above) does care about heating. The NATO country next to Georgia is Turkey. Should they take on Russia, while having a massive problem with the Kurds? No way.

There must be a nice story behind this. Some really dumb "support" promissed by Bush or Cheney. When Saakashvili is back in NY as a lawyer, he may even write a book about it.

[John Robb]

I agree that without innovation, they will lose. However, I've analyzed the Russian pipeline system and it is very easy to knock out. Vast distances force concentration and it prevents any meaningful defense.

[zenpundit]

The Russian domestic security services are also not what they once were in terms of catching a small covert team that could blend with any major urban population in Russia.

[John Robb]

Further, there are over a million Georgian expats living in Russia. Easy to blend in.

[dan tdaxp]

b:

"There is also no rebellion against Russia in Georgia, half of Georgia's people are Russian, speak Russian and want to get away from Georgia."

CIA:

"Ethnic groups: Georgian 83.8%, Azeri 6.5%, Armenian 5.7%, Russian 1.5%, other 2.5% (2002 census)

Languages: Georgian 71% (official), Russian 9%, Armenian 7%, Azeri 6%, other 7% "

[b]

@dan - you are right - I mixed up Georgia with Ukraine. Sorry I don't even have an excuse.

Short take: I screwed up.

Sorry again

b.

[John Robb]

Thanks for the feedback guys. I put up a longer more reasoned case for this on GGs if you would like to read it:

http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2006/10/journal_the_noo.html