Both political parties have ceded Iraq to Baker. My guess is that he will recommend reducing US casualties by cutting patrols and playing a defensive strategy. He will also recommend bringing half of US troops home over the next 12 months (reducing stress on the military). Everyone will declare victory over this (the politics will be "fixed").
To accomplish this reduction in both casualties and troops, the US will cede the western half of Iraq to the insurgents and prompt them to form a regional government (as they get control of the area). The thinking is that if they do get control (whoever does it), then they could then be negotiated with. Baghdad will continue to be a problem but the effort will be to isolate it. Dialogue with both Syria and Iran to cut a deal will commence in secret (although what this will accomplish is still unknown).
What would the insurgents (sunnis) get in exchange for this deal? They already claim Bagdahd and their key real priority is access to oil. And what would we offer Iran, to give up its emerging regional power? Freedom from attack?
Posted by: bobw | November 11, 2006 at 09:39 AM
Don't think too deep on this. To claim victory for the political 'fix' there are only two metrics: casualty and troop reductions. The political backdrop will only be for face saving and not a lasting or tangible solution.
Posted by: John Robb | November 11, 2006 at 11:52 AM
Do you think that they might play semantic games? Where increasing National Guard deployments to maintain force levels, while drawing down the full timers in the Army and Marines is measured as "cutting troops?"
http://www.cnn.com/2006/US/11/11/iraq.national.guard.ap/index.html
Posted by: Tangurena | November 11, 2006 at 12:52 PM
If Baker wants a cut a deal with then Israel won't / can't attack Iran.
Posted by: Bob Morris | November 13, 2006 at 01:35 AM
T -- use of the Guard is more politically sensitive than the regulars. They are already maxed out.
Bob -- Israel is going to operate on its own timetable if the US doesn't act. Next summer is the cut off. I suspect they will focus what they have on cascade operations and manufacture.
In fact, the way to kick off conflict with Iran and not have it on the hands of the US administration is to let the Israelis start it. Expect a US green light and covert support (overflight, refueling, weapons, intelligence). Iranian counter attacks will put the US on the defensive, where it feels more comfortable morally.
Posted by: John Robb | November 13, 2006 at 04:44 AM