Dynamic systems and arctic ice

The date for the destruction of the arctic ice cap continues to shorten. This time: 2040. It will shorten more. Dynamic systems don't rest in transitionary phases for very long. They typically snap to a new stable state (linear projections, which appear to be the basis for most of the current analysis, don't help much here). Further, the feedback loop that is pushing the change is accelerating:

Their forecast may, however, already be out of date and over-optimistic, said Professor Chris Rapley, head of the British Antarctic Survey. He said a recent study by the Global Carbon Project suggested that emissions were rising more than twice as fast as in 2000, which was likely to speed up ice-loss even further.