Kremlinology and predicting war with Iran

Craig Unger has an interesting article using this approach in Vanity Fair.

What's more interesting to me is an analysis of the impact of 4GW forces on this possible war than any Kremlinology applied to the White House (even though I think I have a good feel for that). First is the effect of Hezbollah and Hamas on Israel. Second the impact of the both forks of the open source war in Iraq and the Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan on the US. As a result of a failure of both nations to find a way to successfully conclude conflicts with these forces, they are likely to blame outside states for the ENTIRETY of their predicament -- which is far from the truth, even in the case of Hezbollah. It is much easier to accept this than to conclude that all of the billions they have spent on defense is utterly useless against weak enemies like this. Eventually, the strategic grinder these non-state forces are putting Israel and the US through will result in a strike on Iran.

Comments

[zenpundit]

Hi John,

"It is much easier to accept this than to conclude that all of the billions they have spent on defense is utterly useless against weak enemies like this."

Not useless. Intentionally not employed to the best operational effect due to the current political-moral calculus.

A substantial part of the efficacy of 4GW ( though by no means all of it)hinges on the current calculus among the West remaining static. This assumption naturally inclines a 4GW force, unless it is exceptionally well-led, to overreach themselves.

The crucible of war changes the calculus in direct proportion to how it psychologically affects the population on whom the legitimacy of the state rests. WWII began with a refusal to bomb factories in enemy nations because they were private property and ended in the nuclear fire of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

How will the calculus change, say, inside Israel, if a biowar terror attack originating in Gaza kills 30,000 Israelis ? Let's say the U.S loses Kansas City in an event traced back to Karachi - will the response be merely proportionate or several orders of magnitude greater ?

4GW combined with WMD swiftly reaches a terminal point of escalation.

[John Robb]

Concur:

http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2006/08/playing_at_war.html

However, I don't see that mode of employment changing in the near future.

Also, 4GW forces within the context of OSW, tend to self-correct. Overstepping/failure by one group doesn't negate the entire movement.

[zenpundit]

"Also, 4GW forces within the context of OSW, tend to self-correct. Overstepping/failure by one group doesn't negate the entire movement"

Agreed. A heterogeneous 4GW scenario is different than one dominated a single entity.