Presidential scenarios

Last month, I was asked by a group of smart publishing executives to sketch a scenario the next President. They were pretty surprised with my outcome.

1) Bloomberg will run.
2) Thompson and Hillary will get the nod.
3) Bloomberg will split the independent vote with Hillary.
4) Thompson will win.

I was reminded about it when Larry Johnson posted about the same scenario today:

Michael Bloomberg is running for President: Bloomberg recently had lunch with David Boren, former Senator and a Democrat from Oklahoma. Bloomberg told Boren he is running for President. This will split the vote of Democrats and Independents and will boost the chance that Fred Thompson will be the next President. A well plugged in Republican friend of mine is betting that the final slate of candidates will be Hillary, Thompson, and Bloomberg. Thompson will reap the reward for Bloomberg's third party candidacy.

Comments

[chadmalik]

OK but given that its Bloomberg who thinks out of the box and knows how to make deals, why wouldn't he shoot for a king/queen-making scenario then:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/24/weekinreview/24healy.html?ex=1184040000&en=b13b4da50e7c017e&ei=5070

Bloomberg could, for instance, campaign on one or a few issues such as implementing single-payer national healthcare, win a few states, and let the Dem and Rethug candidates bid for his block of votes by agreeing to implement the issues Bloomberg ran on.

[zenpundit]

Chad,

Bloomberg is well-liked - by ppl who went to good schools and make over 100k but like to pretend they have a social conscience when they support causes that regulate or tax the lifestyles of the great unwashed. New York Mike ain't gonna play in Peoria, much less a white clapboard Church in the piney woods of the Carolinas. He can neither speak to or relate to ppl in about 2/3 of America.

Super-wealthy third part candidates have several problems in that, a) once they have to fill in the details, they begin losing the unknown quantity magic that makes them attractive; b) Enormous wealth creates cognitive distance from the life-experience of the masses, unless you are recent rags to riches, and c) the staggering net worth detracts from the authenticity of a populist campaign to challenge the status quo.

Bloomberg is loved by subscribers of the Columbia Journalism Review. That and money will get him some poll numbers but that's it.

[a517dogg]

I predict (might be just wishful thinking) that Thompson's poll numbers will tank as soon as he's forced to open his mouth and get his positions out there. The reason his numbers are so high now is because Republicans hate their candidates, and he's given Republicans the least number of reasons to hate him by not doing or saying anything.

[chadmalik]

Zen, the point though is that Bloomberg doesn't have to win in the deep South. He can pick a few friendly states and only campaign there, win the electoral votes, then auction them off to the candidate from the dems or republicans willing to implement policies Bloomberg campaigned on.

Remember, Perot was leading both Bush 41 and Clinton in the polls before he started acting crazy (dropping out etc.).

A billion dollars puts Bloomberg in the mix.

[londamium]

Well, it's a lot of fun speculating, but there is one aspect to a Bloomberg candidacy that's being forgotten: he's also going to split the Republican vote. Once that gets factored in to the equation, it makes Hilary, under this match-up, the favourite.

FWIW, the only reason that the 2008 clusterfuck to the White House started so early is that the Bush presidency is more or less over, leaving one hell of a political vacuum, with Dick Cheney keeping the bureaucratic train running.

I suspect that "events" are going to derail the assumptions behind this post as we head in to the spring of 2008.

[tdl]

Thompson is already (although slowly) coming under attack by some conservatives. I agree with a517dogg, as soon as he opens his mouth (30 second clips on YouTube don't count) he will begin to lose his luster. It's way too early to know what will happen. 6 months ahead of the first primary and the entire fall legislative season leaves a lot of room for unanticipated events to occur. Also, (although I am not following it as closely) it seems as though Obama is more liked than Clinton. Spending (not raising money) will indicate who the stronger candidates are. If Obama can continue to win the money game while spending less than Clinton, HRC will lose.

Regards,
TDL

[John Robb]

It's definitely early. That's why it is so fun to call it despite insufficient information.

[tdl]

John,
Definitely true, it does make watching a lot more fun. After today's news I am calling McCain will be out before the end of the month. I was thinking by the end of August, but with his campaign manager & top strategist abandoning him and his inability to raise Rudy/Romney money (as well as his propensity to spend 85% of what he has raised so early) I see no way for him to stay in.

Regards,
TDL