John Robb's Weblog

LIND on the war from the Levant to the Hindu Kush

Again, Lind makes the case for the situation we currently see in the ME is similar to the set up to WW1.

However, I believe that instead of a long conventional war, it is more likely to be a roiling sea of failed/hollow states, superempowered guerrillas (spoiling for a fight and setting off cascades of social/economic disruption), and interventionist/bumbling nation-states (unable/unwilling to understand the new security dynamic).

Schumacher's: The Phantom of the Opera

This is the family's new favorite movie/musical. Very emotive music and excellent performances.

Ramsay's Kitchen Nightmares

My new favorite show. Ramsay has an excellent approach to business turn-arounds. I wish there were more shows like this.

A big step towards war

Ahmadinejad's visit is an opportunity for a manufactured uproar, which in turn will lead to the designation of the Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization. This, of course, is the pretext for bombing the Guard.

Weak Points in Space

Low cost attacks, high value satellites. Another option for low grade information warfare between states.

The galvanizing event came in January when China destroyed one of its weather satellites by launching a ground-based ballistic missile. Air Force Secretary Michael Wynne, speaking in Washington Sept. 19, called the incident an egregious act and added that the Chinese were sending a message to the U.S. military that China now views space as a battlefield.

But Wynne is reluctant to replace a $1.5 billion satellite if it can be destroyed by a $100 million anti-satellite missile. “I can’t afford to do that exchange ratio,” he said. “These numbers are bad.”

Naomi Klein's Shock Doctrine

Interesting short film. Another broadside against nation-building, particularly in Iraq.

Giuliani

NYTimes:

Making an unusual campaign swing outside his own country, Rudolph W. Giuliani said Wednesday that he would like to see a broad expansion of the NATO alliance, including an invitation to Israel, and that the United States would use military force if necessary to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

How Disinformation worked to Change Minds

How a TV hoax in Belgium helped people imagine a divided future:

The turning point is widely believed to have been last December when RTBF, a French-language public television channel, broadcast a hoax on the breakup of Belgium.

The two-hour live television report showed images of cheering, flag-waving Flemish nationalists and crowds of French-speaking Walloons preparing to leave, while also reporting that the king had fled the country.

Panicked viewers called the station, and the prime minister’s office condemned the program as irresponsible and tasteless. But for the first time, in the public imagination, the possibility of a breakup seemed real.

Very cool.

No longer beholden

With Abu Dhabi (via Mubadala) into the Carlyle Group and China (via BlueStone) into Blackstone group, with a substantial minority interest, the idea of the "American Company" is deader than a doornail.

Next Five States?

Not sure I get Barnett's article in Esquire about new US states. If anything, the signs are that we will be losing stars (more defacto than formal at the political level) in the next decades rather than gaining them. Managing that process smartly, is going to be a huge challenge.

Also, I don't see decentralization like the above as a negative or pessimistic outcome. In fact, just the opposite. It's the optimal and most positive outcome we could hope for.