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September 29, 2007


Anton Vereshchagin

John - Good synopsis. I cringe every time I hear someone mention the "long war". Obliviously the politico-military leaders of these "interventionist/bumbling nation-states" never bothered to even skim Sun Tzu.

"There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare."


hi John,

In regards to your past article on EBOing Iran, most of the "informed" discussion lately centers on the assumption that a) such an aerial-based attack by the U.S. would fail, and b) Iran's retaliatory capabilities vis-a-vis U.S. forces in Iraq and weak Gulf states will succeed.

Well, I'm dubious. An equally likely scenario would be the permanent state failure of Iran with relatively few Iraqi shiites sacrificing their own local interests in order to fight for an Iranian regime that was disintegrating live on CNN.

OTOH we would lose a major (and irreplaeable) oil producer from the global energy market and have a zone of anarchy that stretched from the Turkish border to China, encompassing Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and Northern Pakistan. Potentially, one that could also engulf Syria, Lebanon, Paki-Baluchistan and the weaker Central Asian and Transcaucasian states as well. The latter are teetering on their own shaky dynamic as it is.

John Robb

Zen, true.

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