John Robb's Weblog

Breakdown of the big box parties

Newsweek:

"The long tail is not the political center," economist Arnold Kling has said. "It is not a third party waiting to form. It is not a coalition. It is not a 'silent majority' of either the right or left. It is simply every variety of political belief that does not fit within the two major parties." As the Web allows niche voters to form communities, raise money and get heard, it's inevitable that the major-party machines will clash with—and ultimately accommodate—the individualized constituencies they're struggling to serve.

Basically, the fragmentation of political discourse won't be to the benefit of third party candidates. They won't cohere. Also, in contrast to the conclusion of the article, I'm sure that the big parties can't/won't accommodate these fragmented constituencies. The ratio between those represented and those not represented (due to the structure of the system) will continue to decline.

China's markets

Thomas Easton for the Economist on China's stock markets:

..the market in China has become an example of moral hazard gone wild. Historically, this is not uncommon. Markets work in nasty ways and countries frequently try to control them. Critics are faulted for misunderstanding the local “culture” or for missing the crucial fact that this time, really, is different. And then, inevitably, there is a crash.

Totally agree. I'm not convinced that China's government has the legitimacy necessary to weather a big and prolonged crash (which is inevitable).

Netvibes as a blogging tool?

Nice mix of features. Needs a blogging module (if there is one, I didn't see it) and the some widgets that support publishing. This would allow the site to become public/private.

Reinventing Collapse

Just read a review copy of Dmitry Orlov's new book called, "Reinventing Collapse." For me, the lessons he draws from the collapse of the Soviet Union set the stage for some solid thinking on the nature of resilience. Well worth a read. I'll write a formal review later.

Seminar on Long Term Thinking

Excellent resource by Stuart Brand and his team at The Long Now Foundation.

My nephew wants to be a GG

"Don't move or I will herf you."

Yikes

Martenson on the credit bubble.

Fraud up 100% in mortgages

WSJ:

In 2006, losses from fraud could total a record $4.5 billion, a 100% increase from the previous year, says Arthur Prieston, chairman of the Prieston Group, which provides lenders with mortgage-fraud insurance and training. The surge ranges from one-off cases of fudging and fibbing to organized criminal rings. The FBI says its active mortgage-fraud cases have increased to 1,210 this year from 436 in 2003. In some regions, fraud may account for half of all foreclosures. "We've created a culture where a great many people know how to take advantage of the system," says Mr. Prieston.

Of course, the effort is going to be on enforcement actions against the bottom feeders rather than against the boardroom fraud that led to this financial crisis.

Finance Firesales

LOL. Now Merrill Lynch is angling for $5 billion from Singapore. This may be only the start and prices will get lower as time goes on: we're only $50 billion or so into a $500 billion write down in mortgage junk. If other assets begin to crump... Do Asian state-owned investment firms have more resilience than private firms?

Lakota Sioux withdraw from Treaties with the US

They want an independent nation. More on the property situation:

The move to form an independent nation will focus on property rights in a five-state area where the treaties in question were drawn up. The states include South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming and Montana – areas that the group say have been illegally homesteaded for years despite knowledge of Lakota as the historic owners. If the U.S. government does not immediately enter into diplomatic negotiations, the group said in a news release, liens will be filed on real-estate transactions across the region -- an action it says could cloud title issues over thousands of square miles of land and property.

Bolivia and Venezuela are likely to be quick to recognize the new government.