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January 31, 2008

Battlefield Earth

Jamais Cascio: "Geoengineering involves humans making intentional, large-scale modifications to the Earth’s geophysical systems in order to change the environment..." What if it turns into a low cost weapon of mass destruction....

GG blocked by Volvo

Not sure why.

The RIAA Model

Note the quick response to the recent pirate bay legal situation on Digg (note those that are buried for cheering the arrest). Potentially an RIAA effort at using trolls for "strategic communication." Pretty lame if it is. If the RIAA is a model for US on the PR/SC front (although a decade ahead in terms of experience), then we might as well sh*tcan it now.

January 30, 2008

Highlands

Had a great time at the Highlands get together. Gave a slightly shortened presentation of the global guerrilla brief on the last day to help the participants frame many of the complex security issues that they were grappling with. Really fun. It was a great opportunity to connect to some amazing people and reconnect with old friends. In particular, I enjoyed the chance to share ideas on the future of warfare with the brilliant John Arquilla while on a walk beside the cliffs of Half Moon Bay. Hope to do it again.

January 26, 2008

Kenya hollows out

Primary loyalties on the march. From moderate success story to cauldron of instability in a few short weeks:
On Saturday, hundreds of men prowled a section of the city with six-foot iron bars, poisoned swords, clubs, knives and crude circumcision tools. Boys carried gladiator-style shields and women strutted around with sharpened sticks.

Status update

Still on the road. Off to a session of the SecDef's Highlands Forum at the Ritz Carlton at Half Moon Bay, CA this weekend.

Gave another presentation yesterday to a large room full of "former" CIA (and other intel agencies) operatives and analysts. In sum, they had boatloads of experience (including a considerable amount of responsibility for the most impressive US "military" victory since WW2: the collapse of the Soviet adventure in Afghanistan). It was a real honor to be in the room given the accomplishments of the participants. In short, the group really grooved on the new models of warfare I presented. Perhaps it was because a big part of my message was that the future of warfare doesn't include much of the US military.

January 24, 2008

New USG propaganda agency?

I agree with Sharon on this: very bad idea.

Out of control

Heard on NPR this morning that 60% of the movers and the shakers at Davos believe that central bankers can't control/manage the global economy anymore. Implication: it's too big, complex, and fast for these organizations to manage. This is a big shift in thinking that puts them in line with the global guerrilla thinking re: the decline of the nation-state, more frequent black swans, etc.

January 21, 2008

China's $1.4 Trillion

Fallows runs through the details of the "financial balance of terror" between the US and China and concludes that it won't last long. However, of the reasons he listed for a collapse of the balance, he didn't include the most likely: that China will need the money to shore up its domestic economy as the US heads into a lengthy and severe recession.

Remember, China hasn't endured anything other than growth pain for over a decade. Further, the average Chinese citizens hasn't reaped much from that boom. They don't have the financial reserves to weather a crisis (and many of those that do will lose their shirts when China's market bubble tanks). So where will this cash go over the next two years? Not into Blackstones or US Treasuries. Instead, it will be invested domestically. Into jobs and projects to shore up the little bit of legitimacy the Chinese government still has (we see a similar pattern with many of the globe's marginally legitimate governments, from Saudi Arabia to Russia).

Frankly, I'm not sure that $1.4 trillion (the normative value of which is evaporating with each plunge in the dollar) will be enough to prevent China from disintegrating if this crisis becomes a panic.

January 20, 2008

Push Back on IDs

Feds vs. States over a national ID system. More fragmentation.
Montana governor Brian Schweitzer (D) declared independence Friday from federal identification rules and called on governors of 17 other states to join him in forcing a showdown with the federal government which says it will not accept the driver's licenses of rebel states' citizens starting May 11.

...But Homeland Security spokeswoman Laura Keehner says DHS has no intention of blinking. "That will mean real consequences for their citizens starting in may if their leadership chooses not to comply," Keehner said. "That includes getting on an airplane or entering a federal building, so they will need to get passports." Keehner says DHS's policy won't change even if Georgia -- one of the 17 states that has signaled strong opposition to the rules -- declines to apply for an extension. If that scenario came to pass, every Georgian who flies out through the nation's busiest airport -- Atlanta-Hartsfield International -- would have to be patted down by Homeland Security agents and have his carry-on bag hand-screened, likely resulting in massive delays.