Maliki's Rout

Qais Mizher has an excellent account of conditions inside Basra. Sounds like the Iraq army was surprised and routed:

Iraqi forces started their assault on the Shiite militias in Basra on Tuesday. Whatever the initial goal of the operation, by the time I arrived in Basra it was a patchwork of neighborhoods that were either deserted or overrun by Mahdi fighters. There were scattered Iraqi Army and police checkpoints, but no place seemed to be truly under government control.

The logic of guerrilla warfare applies: Given this result and the fact that the assault hit militia homes/neighborhoods (particularly aerial bombings), any casualties suffered were likely replaced (10 to 1) by new recruits. Further, any internal dissension that existed before the event due to a ceasefire is now gone.

What a disaster.

Comments

[dano]

"Further, any internal dissension [amongst the Mahdi army] that existed before the event due to a ceasefire is now gone."

And any internal dissent or questioning of leadership that existed in the Iraqi Army is now amplified.

"What a disaster."

In so many ways.

[dano]

Thomas Ricks writing during Ambassador Crocker's testimony: it looks like one of the intended effects of the Iraqi army attack on Basra was to further separate or eliminate the Mahdi Army splinter groups that had left Sadr's control.

But the actual effect was to drive the splinter groups back together with the main Mahdi contingent.