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March 22, 2008

Psychological defeat...

Times:
Despite 20 years of iron-fisted security, huge investments and mass migration since the last Tibetan uprising, the roof of the world once again looks like a hostile place to most Chinese. The uneasy sense of psychological defeat emerged from interviews with Chinese citizens and soldiers in Sichuan province, a vast region that includes a swathe of the Tibetan plateau, over the past week. Almost without exception, people said they had lost faith in government propaganda and feared that Tibetans would turn to violence against China.

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Quite typical. First you unleash ethnical violence, manhunts of dirty foreigners, rioting and all the fun.
Then when the government reacts you start whining to the international media about "oppression".
Given the abundance of useful idiots (I should know because I was one of them in 1999) in the western public opinion looking out for causes to feel good about themselves you can generate a lot international goodwill if you play the cards right.
If the circumstances are favorable you can even get foreign governments to do the job for yourself as it happened in 1999 or at least lending material support.
Even if the circumstances (chinese economic clout and strategic situation for example) do not allow direct action the combined effects of the international public opinion and the foreign governments will create severe constraints. It is certainly not a mystery that while the USG regards China as an indispensable economic partner now it also sees it as a likely rival in the future, which would be desiderable to see weakened; past CIA support for the tibetans is at records.
In the meantime ethnic hate can bear its fruits, creating us vs them mentality, inhibiting economic growth and increasing the pool of extremism.
If the government eventually gives up you can then create your little postage republic. Given that Tibet was ruled by feudalism, theocracy and serfdom it isn't hard to guess that nothing of nice is going to come out of it, just as it wasn't hard to take guesses about chechenya or kosovo.

Marcello,

The Tibetans have been given more than ample cause to hate Beijing by effects of China's own discriminatory (during 1958-1970, democidal) policies. The CIA has little to do with it

"The Tibetans have been given more than ample cause to hate Beijing by effects of China's own discriminatory (during 1958-1970, democidal) policies. The CIA has little to do with it"

By 1958 the PLA was dealing with a CIA sponsored guerilla campaign which culminated in a pitched battle in 1959. And the PLA, like all armies engaged in coin campaigns, did not just turn around the other cheek. That being said I find hard to describe that as democidal.
Afterwards it is well known that the PRC in general was a shitty place to be with with the great leap forward, the cultural revolution and assorted fun ongoing. That being said I have little reason to take tibetan 1.200.000 deaths claims much more seriously than the usual made up atrocity stories in the "Saddam's people shredder" vein.

The bottom line is that, yes they have some good reasons to be pissed about how the PRC ran things, just as the chinese themselves.
But:
1) What they had before the chinese showed up was utter crap.
2) The can't be allowed to leave.

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