John Robb's Weblog

The excesses of foreign policy

The Reality Situation, David Brooks, NYTimes, May 30, 2008

Brooks is edging towards the reality but doesn't quite get there. He details the futility but doesn't reach the right conclusion.

US foreign policy in the early 21st Century is all about a rear guard action for a retreat. A retreat? Yes, a retreat from the owner of a global monopoly to merely one of many players on a competitive global landscape.

It's only when we seek to contain enemies or enforce Pax Americana that we get into trouble. It consumes attention, resources, and connectivity we can't spare. Worse, its ultimately futile:

This is the problem with multipolarity. When everybody is responsible, nobody is responsible.

Foreign policy for every nation in a world of fierce economic competition and rapidly rising instability is all about gaining advantages and reducing exposures to the downside. Everything else is a vice.

Immigration crack-down has begun

Times on the use of criminal charges:

In temporary courtrooms at a fairgrounds here, 270 illegal immigrants were sentenced this week to five months in prison for working at a meatpacking plant with false documents.

ANWR Drilling: $0.75 in savings

Too hilarious. So this is what passes for energy policy in the US....

No speculative bubble in Oil

The Economist sums it up nicely:

Yet few bankers agree that speculation has much to do with price rises. For one thing, indexed funds do not actually buy any physical oil, since it is bulky and expensive to store. Instead they buy contracts for future delivery, a few months hence. When the delivery date approaches, they sell their contract to someone who actually needs the oil right away, and then invest the proceeds in more futures. So far from holding oil back from the market, they tend to be big sellers of oil for immediate delivery.

That is important because it means that there is no hoarding, typically a prerequisite for a speculative bubble. Indeed, as discussed, America’s stocks and those of most other countries are at normal levels. If the indexed funds were indeed pushing the price of oil beyond the level justified by supply and demand, then they would be having trouble selling their futures contracts at such high prices before they matured. But there is no sign of that. In fact, until recently, oil for immediate delivery was more expensive than futures contracts.

F2F Contact

F2F contact in the current global environment is a luxury. An exclamation point rather than normal punctuation.

At what point does F2F luxury become burdensome? When energy costs increase. Is an ability to shed F2F contact a sign of organizational fitness in the 21st Century? If it isn't already, it is likely to become so quickly.

Evolutionary Imperatives

A person that can't do some or all of his/her work in a virtual environment is evolutionarily impaired. This follows: an organization that doesn't select for this capability is evolutionarily impaired.

Global Guerrillas is 616 in Europe

Blogrank for Global Guerrillas in Europe. Very cool.

Back in the early days of blogging, my "John Robb's Weblog" was in the top fifty worldwide. Of course, that was out of a universe of tens of thousands, now it out of tens of millions. Have to admit, the early days were more fun.

Airline industry to shrink by 20%

Dallas Morning News. Higher prices (fuel now 40% of fare) means a smaller market. So, with fewer, slower, and costlier flights -- does this increase the chance that the middle seat is empty?

Go ahead quote the PR/Sales flack

The WSJ adds the following caveat to the EIA adjustment:

"We know there is plenty of oil and gas resource in the world," says Pete Stark, vice president for industry relations at IHS. He says the difficulties of supply aren't buried in oil fields, but are "above ground."

Sure, talk to CERA's PR/Sales flack for insight. LOL. MSM at its best.

Trend lines in wealth

Rothkopf: "the world's 1,100 richest people have almost twice the assets of the poorest 2.5bn"

Where does unregulated capitalism lead? The evidence tends to point towards exponential concentrations in income. I wonder if there is an equilibrium level or it continues to concentrate ad infinitum. Was consumerism only a short passing phase of history? One that kept socialism at bay, but now is no longer needed given the vast pools of competitive and geographically dispersed labor available today?