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May 12, 2009

Comments

Richard B

John-

Thanks for promoting yet another important question.

FYI, the 1918 flu was often called "the three day flu" because it was so consistently mild during its first pass.

How might I find the frequency with which past new flu strains became more lethal as they mutate. Both the WHO & CDC have emphasized this danger but neither has quantified the recorded historical frequency despite having data on (dozens?) of past new strains.

Another interesting historical question, one which might yet have immense policy significance: if, as the WSJ recently reported, the best science then sugggested that the 1970's swine flu virus had "only" (sic) a 2-20% chance of becoming a global pandemic, wasn't President Ford's much maligned aggressive response a most important best choice given the information then available?

My own related questions continue at www.sustainablerights.blogspot.com.

Larry Dunbar

"How might I find the frequency with which past new flu strains became more lethal as they mutate. Both the WHO & CDC have emphasized this danger but neither has quantified the recorded historical frequency despite having data on (dozens?) of past new strains."

Check-out Google's effort. The engineers figured out how to predict a pandemic faster than WHO, I am not sure about CDC, but your comment leads me to think that Google is way ahead on this.

If they are able to predict, it must be simple to predict, within days after the next infection, the second out-break.

Of course it may not help you if you're in the second or first outbreak, like the USA was, but if you are not, you could put in-place a strategy similar to the Asians.

But then, if the Nation-state was weak, they could not protect their boarders any way, and it would be up to the state.

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