INFRASTRUCTURE MELTDOWNS

In today's complex world, infrastructure failures aren't limited to a single network. They spread across networks due to a complex interplay of interdependencies. What's worse is that these interdependencies are often both tightly coupled (connections that rapidly spread a failure to other systems) and non-linear (feedback loops magnify the impact of failures). Global Guerrillas will use these interconnections and interdependencies to take-down complete infrastructures through seemingly small attacks.

Network Interdependencies
Network interdependencies fall into five categories:

• Input -- material delivered by one network is used by another.
  
• Mutual -- networks that serve as inputs for each other. Example: oil and power generation.
  
• Co-location -- different networks that are located in the same geography.
  
• Shared -- networks that share physical components, transport, or facilities.
  
• Exclusive -- a network that can only support one or few outputs, may be transient. Example: Oil/Gasoline pipelines.

Types of Failure
Global guerrillas will plan attacks to create the following types of failure.
See inset diagram to understand how a failure in electricity production can impact other networks.

Cascade Failure: cascades of failure (see Cascading System Failure for more background) can spread quickly from one network to another through "input" and "mutual" interdependencies.

Escalating Failure: the failure in one networked infrastructure can exacerbate a failure in another network. This failure is typically due to "shared" or "exclusivity" interdependencies. For example: an attack against transportation network would slow repair of an electricity failure.

Common Cause Failure: this failure is due to a single attack that directly impacts two or more networks. This failure is typically due to geographical "co-location."

Infrastructure Meltdowns
Given these attributes, how will global guerrillas attack infrastructures? They will likely follow this basic formula (I will go into this in much more detail in my book on Global Guerrillas, out this fall):

• Map infrastructure interdependencies according to the five types.
  
• Identify potential cascades, common cause failures, and escalating failures.
  
• Physically attack or isolate the communications of response/control center personnel and/or corporate senior management to delay recovery. An example of a previous al Qaeda op from Navy Commander James Pelkofski: In the attack on the U.S. embassy in Nairobi, Kenya, a truck carrying explosives approached the main embassy gate, possibly posing as a delivery vehicle. It was redirected by guards to a back gate. There, a gun and grenade attack on security personnel by as many as three assailants preceded the explosion that destroyed the embassy. The preliminary gun and grenade assault ensured the primary weapon, the truck bomb, was delivered into the compound with devastating effect.
  
• Use combined arms to attack critical points. A combination of explosives (or equivalents), high energy radio frequency weapons (HERFs or "herfing" -- see "Homemade Microwave Weapons" for more), and computer hacking of control systems (SCADA).
  
• Conduct sequential attacks across multiple infrastructures to amplify and extend the impact.
  
• Depart the area.