Attacks against the Iraqi oil system continue to increase (see chart). As a result, oil production in Iraq is still well below pre-war levels and declining... (as is Iraq's electricity production). This pattern of activity is one demonstration of the shift from simple terrorism to global guerrilla strategies. The expertise gained here will likely be used to disrupt Saudi Arabian and Caspian sea production (the Saudi system offers substantial opportunity for cascades of failure). GGs are already flowing into Saudi Arabia from Sudan and Iraq. Additionally, they have begun aggressive operations again in Chechnya (near critical pipelines in Dagestan and Azerbaijan). Through these disruptions, global guerrillas will be able to gain pricing control over oil.
The impact of this disruption is likely to be severe given the window of vulnerability in the oil market due to insufficient production and high demand. In support of this, Adam Sieminski, Deutsche Bank's chief energy strategist, estimates that a major disruption of supplies would result in $80 oil. Two disruptions (a major attack on Iraqi and Saudi production), would result in $100 oil. This price, if extended for months, would result in a severe global recession.
While we can't predict a black swan event, we can anticipate events based on trends, capabilities, motivations, and unique periods of vulnerability.