Let's put the horrible attack in Beslan in perspective. Like 9/11 and the Madrid bombings, it was a perfect example of classic terrorist tactics, unbounded by the traditional limits of state sponsorship. It serves to heighten passions. These passions can ignite aggressive military action (superpower baiting) or isolation. Both serve the needs of the guerrillas.
As we have seen, an attack(s) of this type can induce (ala Boyd):
- Physical isolation. A rift between Russia and its allies in its rush towards unilateral action. An imperial presidency that doesn't heed critics.
- Mental isolation. The novelty of the attack undermines previous planning efforts. What should we defend? Who's the enemy? Chechens or al Qaeda? Confusion.
- Moral isolation. Justification for its bloody tactics in Chechnya -- a blind eye to linkage. "Our security trumps all other concerns."