An alternative explanation for our success in Afghanistan can be seen in the graph to the left (courtesy BBC). Here's the data:
- The Taliban nearly stopped opium production in 2001.
- Production resumed quickly after the US invasion and has continued to increase since then. Opium production in 2004 is up 63% over 2003. Afghanistan now supplies 87% of the world's opium.
- In 2003, Afghan opium production generated $2.8 billion in revenue (~60% of Afghanistan's GDP). My estimate is that 2004's production should net nearly $4 billion (80% + of GDP).
A potential interpretation of this data is:
- The US invasion "worked" because guerrilla entrepreneurs sat the invasion out. This was potentially due to anger over the Taliban's opium policy.
- Guerrilla groups quickly returned to opium production once the US threw out the Taliban out. Also, the central government clearly does not exercise much control over the countryside (as demonstrated in the rise of production).
- The country is "pacified" as long as guerrillas commanders and continue to make money through opium sales. This cash flow has converted anti-state global guerrillas into semi-loyalist paramilities that keep the country relatively stable.
- This drug money will likely be used to fund a Bazaar of violence in Afghanistan if the government's policies impinge on production.