Fallujah is a TAZ. A temporary autonomous zone that is being used by global guerrillas for regional operations. It isn't a central hub of the insurgency, because there isn't any central hub. The insurgency is a decentralized entity composed of many small networks that coordinate their activities through the open source bazaar. A good definition of Fallujah (and other locations like south Wazirastan) is that it is:
- A lawless zone
- that is locally controlled and
- fiercely independent.
What a TAZ provides
A TAZ is not a major source of funding, manpower, or supply for the insurgency. It doesn't power the insurgency at a root level. It is merely a geographic zone that is free of state control -- an organic byproduct of a failed or weak state. Global guerrillas find sanctuary in a TAZ because they fight the same enemy. The state. A TAZ provides:
- Basic shelter (housing, etc. that can be bought).
- Freedom of movement (it is a no-go zone for forces of the state).
- Open commerce (interconnections with other groups, trading, etc.)
Collapsing the TAZ
The current operation to take Fallujah pits US Marines (and their reconstituted Peshmerga and Badr Brigade allies) against local boys, organized by neighborhood, mosque, family, or tribe. Most of the global guerrillas previously operating in the city are already gone. However, some will stay for the fight (as payment for the support provided and/or due to a strong affection for the city's people). The net result will be:
- A good fight. The city is being defended by people that are fighting for their homes. This isn't Najaf (which is often cited as the model for Fallujah), where the militia was bused in. Think Grozny lite (to the limited extent that traditional Arab warfare can translate to siege warfare).
- Little damage to the insurgency. Most of the people and equipment we want to kill or capture is already gone. The US/Iraqi government telegraphed their desire to retake the city months ago. Further, many other locations are available (the US does not have enough troops in country to make a full court press on every TAZ in Iraq).
- A moral loss. The first target seized by the US military was Fallujah's hospital. The reason: to limit information (or disinformation) on the number of casualties generated by the firepower heavy Marine assault. Despite this action, the media will deliver the moral message. A weak force of local "freedom fighters" has been crushed by a powerful US military. As a result, we will likelly see a Sunni boycott of the elections.