Al Qaeda wants to extend Iraq's insurgency to Saudi Arabia. Numerous attacks and statements clearly demonstrate this. Their objectives are more opaque. Their potential objectives fall into the following categories.
- Coercion. The state stays intact. The royal family actively supports global jihad (money and people). Oil prices rise. American forces are fully ejected from the country.
- Coup d'etat. Coercion fails and the senior royals are replaced. Same result as coercion.
- State failure. The state resists coercion and coup d'etat. A campaign of system sabotage (ala Iraq) is unleashed. Primary loyalties rush to the forefront and the state collapses into chaos.
Coup d'etat
One outcome that al Qaeda would like to see is a coup d'etat (or at least an attempt). It preserves the power of the state and limits the potential of US occupation. While al Qaeda is likely not to plan/conduct the coup, it can through global guerrillas methods (systems sabotage), create the conditions for one.
But why a coup? Disenfranchised elites, particularly ambitious officers held back in the military due to being of the wrong tribe or family, may see the al Qaeda challenge as the opportunity to sieze power (the formation of "The Pennisula's Free Officers' Movement" announced on Jan 15 is a good example). A good source of insight into the mechanics of coups is Edward Luttwak's classic book, "Coup d'Etat: A Practical Guidebook." Luttwak's analysis concludes that coups are possible when the government bureaucracy is highly centralized and prone to absolute obedience. Other elements include:
- Economic backwardness. Disenfranchised elites. High unemployment and widespread disatisfaction (an incentive to acquiesce in the face of a coup). Bing!
- The absence of a political community. Ongoing repression that has squelched all forms of political sophistication. Bing!
- Political isolation. The country isn't vulnerable to external economic or military pressure (blockades and invasions that could shut down the new government). Bing!
- Organic unity. The country is ruled through a single cohesive entity. Bing!
How it would play out
The essence of a coup is to gather allies for a swift strike on the leadership, while neutralizing power centers that might mount opposition. It takes careful analysis. Here are some interesting things to look for:
- A Palace coup. A prince (perhaps from the "Cadet" line) of the ruling tribe would be the best choice for a coup. It may be able to keep King Fahd in place and exert control over him, due to his medical condition.
- ARAMCO. Large corporations can oppose coup d'etats. ARAMCO shares organic unity with the royal family and should therefore fall quickly.
- Security Forces. The centralized structure of the Saudi armed forces implies that battalion level officers would be the best people to subvert. Some units of the internal security forces will need to be neutralized through direct assault.
I am going to keep working on this brief. Feedback is welcome.