How does open-source war spread across borders? Andrei Smirnov, a reporter writing for Jamestown, has an interesting take on the rise of the Caucasian front in southern Russia. Earlier attempts to form an united Caucasian front against the Russians failed in large part due to a hierarchical approach. Today's open-source community approach seems to be working (the most recent demonstration of success is the attack on Nalchik). This is to a lesser degree (due to the use of foreign recruits as suicide bombers) what we are seeing in Iraq.
After the start of the second Chechen military campaign in 1999, the rebel leaders devised another strategy toward the North Caucasus. Unlike Sheikh Mansur or Imam Shamil, the contemporary Chechen commanders did not send squadrons of Chechen militants to other regions, but instead welcomed volunteers who wanted to help the Chechens fight against Russian troops. People from Karachevo-Cherkessia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Ingushetia and Dagestan went to the Chechen mountains, first in small numbers and then in larger groups. They were trained, gained combat experience and then returned to their homelands. Jamaats—underground rebel groups—were formed in all Caucasian regions.Now, there is no longer any need for Basaev to deploy Chechen groups to attack outside of Chechnya. He can go individually to any of the neighboring republics and recruit as many local men as needed to conduct a large-scale operation. This ensures that Basaev does not have to divert his Chechen forces, which immobilize the best-trained Russian troops and who are stuck in a quagmire of endless guerilla war. The new tactic allows the insurgency to open new fronts without weakening their struggle in Chechnya itself. This is the worst scenario the Russian authorities could imagine.