JOURNAL: Lessons from the arrival of bird flu in Africa

Sunday, 12 February 2006

JOURNAL: Lessons from the arrival of bird flu in Africa

Bird Flu has shown up in Nigeria. The presence of bird flu in this location is particularly unsettling due to the inability of global health agencies to control and track its progress. However, the most interesting challenge is due to the prevalence of AIDs in many African countries:

"If H5N1 gets into people with AIDS it would likely persist and throw off mutants left, right and center," the British virologist Dr. Oxford said. (the New York Times, February 12, 2006, "Experts Sound Alarm as Bird Flu Spreads")

The genetic sharing that occurs when two horizontal pathogens are combined in a single host can create a more lethal entity. For survivability, this new more lethal entity will need to improve its transmission and increase its persistence in a treated host. Sounds like the same situation we are facing with the combination of rapidly evolving transnational criminal networks and open source terrorists. The net result: global guerrillas.

Posted at 03:11 PM | Permalink

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On Brave New War

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New York Times Op-Ed
...a fast, thought-sparking book.. -- David Brooks
Greenpeace
I read it twice and bought six copies for my friends -- John Passacantando (Exec. Dir. Greenpeace)
G. Gordon Liddy Show (radio)
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City Journal
Robb has written an important book that every policymaker should read -- Glenn Reynolds (Instapundit)
Small Wars Journal
Without reservation Brave New War is for professional students of irregular warfare and for any citizen who wants to understand emerging trends and the dark potential of 4GW -- Frank Hoffman
Scripps Howard News Service
A brilliant new book published by terrorism expert John Robb, titled "Brave New War," hit stores last month with virtually no fanfare. It deserves both significant attention and vigorous debate... - Thomas P.M. Barnett
Chet Richards DNI
John has produced an important book that should help jar the United States and other legacy states out of their Cold War mindset. You can read it in a couple of hours – so you should read it twice...
Washington Times / UPI
Robb correctly finds the antidote to 4GW not in Soviet-style state structures such as the Department of Homeland Security, but in decentralization -- William Lind (the father of 4th generation warfare).
Robert Paterson
Having painted a crystal clear picture of how a war of networks is playing out, he comes to an astonishing conclusion that I hope he fills out in his next book.
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John Robb of Global Guerrillas has written the most important book of the year, Brave New War. - Daily Dish (The Atlantic)
Simulated Laughter
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Haft of the Spear
There aren’t a lot of books that make me recall a 12-year-old self aching for the next issue of The Invincible Iron Man to hit the shelves. Well done. - Michael Tanji
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His book posits an Army of Davids -- with the traditional nation state in the role of Goliath. - Ed Cone (Ziff Davis)
The Newshoggers
I highly recommend reading and re-reading this work. - Fester
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Politics in the Zeros
I suggest this is something Lefties need to start thinking about now, as that decentralized world is coming. - Bob Morris
Hidden Unities
A thoughtful book that should be read more widely than the latest Tom Friedman whopper, Chalmers Johnson scare tale or Bill Kristol hack fest. - EB