Here's a classic description of open source warfare by a Nigerian general named Gbadebo, “We are no longer facing one group, we are now facing so many factions." As the government is slowly realizing, the open source war in Nigeria is flying under its own power now. One of the reasons for this is that the criminal economy -- oil bunkering (smuggling stolen oil), arms trafficking, corporate warfare, corruption, etc. -- gets positive feedback from disruption. This criminal "economy," which I call the bazaar, is an economic platform that connects transnational crime with local global guerrillas. The more the state hollows out, the faster the transactions (due to less friction) in this economy occur. Their strategy of combining warfare, disruption, and criminality makes it not only possible for these groups to survive, but to thrive. It's a classic sign of a dynamically unstable system.
As this movement spreads towards the fields and pipeline infrastructures around Bonny (see map on previous post, in the eastern delta), rich targets await: Gbadebo, "If you blow up a flow station in Bonny, the entire place will cease to exist. It could take more than six months to quench the fire." Meanwhile, ongoing attacks on corporate psychology are devastating the legal economy in the western delta. For example, the construction in the western delta has ceased which throws currently employed workers into the arms of insurgents: Meanwhile, Wilbros Offshore Nigeria, employers of the hostages, has signified its intention to close down operation(s) in the Shell Western Division following the continued incarceration of the three workers. Wilbros, a pipeline construction and maintenance contracting firm in charge of Shell’s Focardos terminal projects, has told its sub-contractors to withdraw their equipment from the Western Division comprising Bayelsa, Delta and Ondo states. One of the contractors whose barges were hired by Wilbros said over 10,000 Nigerian workers will be affected by the evacuation.