Readers of this weblog understand that systems disruption has been a recurring theme. It is a low cost, high impact method of conducting strategic warfare (with dimensions of all three types of warfare: attrition, moral, and connectivity) against developed states. Although most of the disruption activity to date has been focused on strategic resources, the method can be easily applied to urban to reduce general economic activity. Here's a good example of what this means from an incident that occurred yesterday from an article in the Washington Times.
This article explores the implications of Washington DC gridlock due to two major accidents (supplemented in the article by some good examples of similar incidents in the past): Two unrelated traffic accidents within an hour of each other yesterday in Northeast shut down two major highways during the busy morning commute, causing massive gridlock and seemingly endless delays -- but also providing an ominous warning: What if it had been a terrorist attack?Lon Anderson, spokesman for AAA Mid-Atlantic, said the main commuter routes in the Washington area operate at maximum capacity, leaving almost no alternative if one becomes blocked because of an accident. "Add a major incident that takes away a major commuter route and it doesn't mean that everything slows down. It means that everything stops," Mr. Anderson said.
One of the reasons we aren't going to become resilient, is reflected in the this view (which demonstrates a lack of understand human nature or the nature of systems): "Other than a hurricane, why would you need an evacuation plan?" asked Mr. Larsen, a retired Air Force colonel and originator of the first graduate course on homeland security at the National War College. "If it's a nuclear attack, forget it. A chemical attack, you don't have to go that far. I see no need to have all these evacuation plans." It's not about evacuation per se, it is about maintaining business as usual in the face of systems disruption. If this guy is building our homeland security strategy, we are in deep trouble.The interesting thing about cities is that they can descend to lower levels of equilibrium (of general business activity) when faced with ongoing disruptions. The key is to create the disruption/terrorism "tax" of a sufficient rate necessary to accomplish this.