You'll be brought down to your knees if Pakistan doesn't co-operate with you. That is all that I would like to say. Pakistan is the main ally. If we were not with you, you won't manage anything.Pervez Musharraf
Pakistan is the key to the strategies of both US/NATO and Taliban/al Qaeda in central Asia. Unfortunately, while the Taliban/al Qaeda strategy rests on a broad base of support, the US/NATO strategy rests on the survival of one man: Pervez Musharraf. This dependence may prove short-lived. Musharraf, responding to both domestic and organizational pressure, is in retreat (as evidenced by his recent deals with domestic rebels and the Taliban):
- Autonomy to rebels. After the loss of a reported 3,000 troops, Pakistan has ceded the tribal areas of Waziristan (population: 800,000) to pro-Taliban local rule. Weapons will be returned, outposts will be abandoned, and compensation will be paid.
- Safe haven for the Taliban. Pakistan has cut a ceasefire with the Taliban's Mullah Omar. Pakistani troops will no longer hunt down the Taliban (and likely al Qaeda) in Pakistan. This ceasefire also prevents US/NATO troops from crossing the border to pursue Taliban forces.
- Exporting guerrillas to gain good-will. 2,500 Taliban and al Qaeda militants have been released from Pakistani jails (under the stipulation that they will leave Pakistan).
Time and innovation is working against Musharraf
Musharraf's retreat clearly demonstrates that he is in survival mode. Unfortunately for him (and by extension, us), his release of the Taliban and domestic guerrillas on Afghanistan will not provide him the window of safety he hopes for. Here's why:- Unlike the opposition mounted by Pakistan against the USSR in Afghanistan, Pakistan's ISI is not in control of these forces (they now have a lucrative source of financing: the opium trade).
- NATO, as the leader of the counter-insurgency in Afghanistan (unlike the USSR before it) will not mount a serious effort. Signs of stress are already evident. NATO will quickly fold under the mounting pressure (which may spell, for all intents and purposes, the end of that treaty organization).
- The Taliban and al Qaeda are already importing the open source methods of insurgency developed in Iraq to central Asia. These tactics and organizational approaches will work better in Pakistan, due to its level of development, societal complexity and urbanization, than in Afghanistan.
Finishing the Job
As the war in Afghanistan reaches it conclusion, likely sooner rather than later, Musharraf will quickly become the main target. If the global guerrilla playbook is used, these forces will not use direct attacks on Musharraf's person (which have been mounted on numerous occasions in the past). Instead, they will seek to fragment Pakistan's society and economy, which will likely lead to Musharraf's removal from power.Of course, as we have seen, the best method to begin a process of state fragmentation is through the indirect method of systems disruption. A great example of what is possible was revealed on the 24th of September 2006, when a disruption of power from the Tarbela dam shut down electricity across 75% of Pakistan. All guerrillas need to do to achieve Musharraf's removal, and the destruction of US policy in the region, is to repeat the process that led to this outage again and again and again. It's a rudimentary first step.