Valdis Krebs, an expert on social network analysis and a friend, has built an interesting interactive map of the social relationships between various groups in the Middle East. It provides a visual representation of the open loop system leading us to war described in my earlier brief. His analysis is brief and to the point:
...sadly those lack of loops [connections] have things going in the wrong direction. I have been updating my Mideast Network Map based on the News. Now the network map self-organizes into what will likely be the "sides" in a greater Mideast war... With two opposing clusters we have more loops WITHIN the clusters and less and less loops between the clusters --> leading the two clusters [now echo chambers] to foment themselves to greater conflict. Disconnection is dangerous. Yet, the pattern of disconnects AND connections that allow two opposing clusters to emerge is most dangerous! The tipping point to war?What's most interesting to me is the role that is being played in this map by non-state 4GW forces in shaping these clusters. To see this on the Valdis' map, pull the US/Israel to the left and al Qaeda/Hezbollah/Hamas to the right. In this orientation, it becomes clear that the ongoing war between non-state 4GW forces (more autonomous than proxies) and Israel/US is the driver pulling the clusters apart. There are no signs that this conflict will abate. Just the opposite, it looks like it will escalate, and as a result, an inevitable misstep will put the states connected to these clusters into direct conflict.
On a side note, the map also makes a clear case that any and all attempts to connect to Iran and Syria in order to denigrate and/or neutralize connections to the non-state nodes, is paramount to avoiding a larger conflict.
UPDATE: Martin Van Creveld just wrote an article that says something similar. He suggests that efforts should be made to peel Syria away from the emerging bloc (leaving just Iran and 4GW forces):
The common wisdom these days appears to be that Iran, Syria and Hezbollah have formed a new axis of evil against the United States and Israel. Given this past summer’s war in Lebanon, there is undeniably something to this view, but it is far from the whole truth — and it is in our own self-interest to acknowledge that our enemies are not necessarily all of the same stripe. The key to the trio is Syria.