One of the groups most likely to play a hand in driving the price of gasoline to $5 a gallon (or much more) and hollow out a major oil producing state isn't Islamic or in the Middle East. It's located in Nigeria and goes under the name of MEND (Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta -- more about MEND). Its success so far includes the ongoing disruption of 1/4 of Nigeria's oil output (of light sweet crude destined for the US) and a radical slowdown corporate activity (due to attacks that put pressure on corporate psychology, particularly Shell).
Like al Qaeda, MEND uses an open source insurgency (see BraveNewWar for background on this) to create disorder. Unlike al Qaeda, it doesn't have an operational arm, in that it doesn't have guerrillas of its own to advance its agenda. Instead, MEND uses a light organization to facilitate and hire groups that will hollow out the Nigerian state. Some of the best analysis on MEND is from the very talented James Briggs (who is based in Nigeria). In his recent "Guide to the Armed Groups Operating in the Niger Delta," James describes MEND's operational style:- A thin leadership structure composed of recognized leaders across the delta that can funnel arms, cash, and training to the ad hoc groups it assembles. This effort has significantly improved the quality of the guerrilla operations in the Niger delta. This leadership organization also carefully manages the publicity surrounding its actions to build brand awareness.
- A large pool of individuals and bands of individuals that have ties to multiple primary loyalties (from ethnic militias to gangs to cults) that are hired to carry out MEND's operations. "For example, 'Mike' from Gbaramatu can fight for MEND one day, rig an election for his local government chief the next, kidnap a foreigner for ransom and get in a cult clash on Saturday."
- Ongoing support for smaller, criminal gangs that take hostages and conduct operations primarily for criminal gain. The reason: it aids in making Niger delta ungovernable.