Mexico's army, due to low salaries ($330 a month) and bad conditions/treatment, already suffers an 8-9% desertion rate -- these deserters are left unpunished due to an inability to pursue, prosecute, and imprison. That rate is is expected to radically increase as the war with narco-guerrillas in northern Mexico heats up. As a hint of what's to come, between 2000 and 2006 (the Vicente Fox administration), of the 4,890 soldiers assigned to Federal police duties, all but 10 deserted (according to IAPA journalist Maria Idalia Gomez).
A Fragmented Opposition
"The Zetas don't ask the Gulf cartel permission for anything anymore. They simply inform them of their activities, whenever they feel like it." US law enforcement official, under condition of anonymity to Alfredo Corchado of the Dallas Morning News.
In contrast to the depletion of the Mexico's military, its non-state opposition is expanding rapidly. The Zetas (originally formed by 50 Mexican special operators, some with US training, recruited by the Gulf Cartel as enforcers) has ballooned to a network of 2000 members, including recruits from Guatemalan counter-insurgency forces called the Kabiles. Also, compared to the low rates of investment by the Mexican military in its recruits, the Zetas (according to US intelligence estimates) spend 50% of their substantial smuggling earnings on training, recruitment, intelligence gathering, and computer software. As a result, its operations have expanded to 24 Mexican states. In Nuevo Laredo alone, a focal point of smuggling, an estimated 200 Zetas with a support system of 300 are in operation.
Another sign of Mexico's decay, has been the arrival of a new paramilitary group called La Gente Nueva ("the new people"). Apparently loyalist (although it could be that this group is more about protection of its cut of smuggling revenue than support for the government), this network is composed of current and former police officers seeking revenge against the Zetas for their slaughter of policemen.