In Iraq, the long term trend towards the privatization of warfare has finally reached the dregs of this war's long tail: Sunni tribal militias are quickly being formed, blessed with US military "contractor" status, and awarded with a set of golden handcuffs. For those of you that were paying close attention, this shouldn't come as a surprise. It was the inevitable result of the Iraqi military's inability to reduce the influence of primary loyalties (a loyalty to anything but the state) in its ranks and of the US (or any other modern state) to do anything but play with warfare at the margins.
The advantages of these new participants over uniformed the Iraqi military include (see the brief "Loyalist Paramilitaries" for more):- Legitimacy and loyalty. Unlike the uniformed Iraqi forces, militias draw on tribal, ethnic, and religious loyalties. Close knit units can be formed on the basis on long-standing relationships. This increases their ability to fight.
- Rapid ramp-up. These militias require little formal training. They can quickly leverage existing relationships and lines of loyalty to build units.
- Effectiveness. Decentralized militias have a record of effectiveness. They innovate rapidly and can draw on the same sources of strength available to global guerrillas. They also can take measures the uniformed militaries aren't allowed to.
- Loss of legitimacy for the Iraqi state. The establishment of every new "contractor" will be at the expense of the Iraqi state's (or any state's) primary claim to legitimacy: a monopoly of force.
- A new "supercharged" criminal strata. Expect these contractors to quickly expand their operations into criminal enterprise to increase their profits. This will be made all the worse because these units will be able to use the US as enforcers.
- More Warlords. Think Somalia...