Current tightness in the oil markets (peak oil?) has presented the PKK, the Kurdish guerrilla group fighting the Turkish government, with an amazing opportunity. It can become responsible for sending oil prices over $100 a barrel and sowing panic in global markets.
How? This objective can be accomplished through a series of attacks on the BTC pipeline that runs from Azerbaijan to the Turkish port of Ceyhan (in a fashion similar to earlier attacks that PKK has made on less substantial pipelines). With over 750,000 barrels of oil flow a day (1 m a day next year) over 1,092 miles of pipeline, ongoing disruption would result in:- An immediate price spike that would likely exceed $100 a barrel, an important psychological barrier. This is pricing power in the oil market on par with Saudi Arabia (see the 2004 brief: "A Shadow OPEC" for more).
- A major loss of income for Turkey from pipeline fees, as contractual caveats kick in. Also, substantial disruptions and price hikes for not only Turkish customers, but European customers too. This could put the final nail in coffin for Turkey's EU bid.
- Global recognition of their situation/cause and immediate international pressure on Turkey to resolve the crisis. At a minimum, if Turkey opts for violence, the disruption of the BTC would be a strategic timer on the conflict -- as in the longer it persists, the greater the international pressure to end it.