JOURNAL: Sadr's Defensive Strategy

The Iraqi government's militias (Army/police) are on the offensive in Basra, in an attempt to eliminate the Sadr's militia. In contrast to previous engagements with the Mahdi army, this fight is going to more interesting. A leaner and more efficient Mahdi army has learned from Hezbollah's success in southern Lebanon that a carefully planned defensive strategy in combination with a strategic timer (a series of actions that inflict visible strategic damage to the opponent) can rapidly dissolve the political will of a weak adversary (Maliki certainly fits that description). In addition to the defense of Mahdi army neighborhoods and efforts to interdict the supplies of Iraqi army/police forces operating in Basra, here's what will be done on the strategic side:

• Increase US casualties/embarrassment during a politically sensitive time. Rocket and mortar attacks on the Green zone. More IED/small arms attacks on US troops. The objective is to increase US pressure Maliki to accelerate his time table or ending it early if objectives aren't quickly achieved.
• Disrupt daily life/economics. There is already an economic slowdown/strike underway under the banner of civil disobedience. Businesses are closing due to a lack of workers. This will quickly exacerbate an already dire economic situation and increase pressure on the government to stop the conflict.
• Disrupt the oil system. This hasn't occurred yet, but it is very likely to occur shortly. The Mahdi army has the ability to shut down, indefinitely, all oil production (1.6 m barrels a day) in southern Iraq. This effort will cost the government tens of millions in revenues for each day of the conflict. It may prove be the most effective means of prematurely terminating Maliki's offensive.

UPDATE: The assault on Basra already appears to be stalling. The Mahdi army has better weapons than the Iraqi government opposition and is fighting well in urban zones. If the strategic timer adds oil system disruption, it's over (and potentially Maliki's hold on power).

UPDATE2: Strategic timer activity for Thursday: The disruption of oil production has begun. The Zubair-1 export pipeline was bombed (impact 1/3 of Iraqi oil production). Green zone mortar attacks for Thursday: 9:15AM, 1PM, and 3PM.

UPDATE3: NYTimes on Sunday 30 March: "Many Iraqi politicians say that Mr. Maliki’s political capital has been severely depleted by the campaign and that he is now in the curious position of having to turn to Mr. Sadr, a longtime rival and now his opponent in battle, for a solution to the crisis."