Here's some fun big picture thinking that may help explain current global gyrations/shocks as we head into the rest of a difficult year. I find it to be an interesting model although your results may vary. As always, use it or discard it, it's your choice. Feedback is always welcome.
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The rapid growth of global guerrillas (the systems disrupting, crime fueled sons of global fragmentation), non-bank financial firms (hedge funds and investment banks that are cumulatively known as the "shadow banking system"), and cybercriminals can be explained by a fundamental restructuring of our global economic, energy, and communications system. In a little over a decade, this collection of relatively isolated systems (markets and networks) firmly ensconced within nation-state regulatory/legal structures (political economies and national networks) have merged into a single fluid global system (absent any meaningful global governance). This new structure has enabled a form of parasitic predation by these newly empowered participants, that puts the entire global order at risk.
The Bow-Tie
If we look at this new global system from a distance, its architecture is something called a Bow-Tie (aka "Platform"). This is a form of universal control system architecture that underlies complex systems from the Internet to cell metabolism (for background, read the excellent article, "Bow ties, metabolism, and disease" by Caltech's Marie Csete and John Doyle). While Bow-Tie architectures existed within the nation-state system, it was organically intertwined with political controls.
This new system is devoid of those organic connections. It's pure. The Bow-Tie architecture has the following features:
- Nearly unlimited scalability. The ability to accept a wide variety of inputs (the left bow) and convert them into a small set of universal building blocks (the knot). This, in combination with protocols for interconnection, enable a plug-and-play approach to building a wide variety of outputs (the right bow).
- Robust and evolvable at the same time. As environments change in the short term, new combinations can be made from the basic building blocks and protocols to meet new demands. Additionally, since the system is shared, any evolutionary innovation quickly propagates across the entire system.
- Fragility. The entire system is vulnerable to changes, perturbations, and hijacking within the core set of building blocks and protocols.
Parasitic Predation
The strength of the Bow-Tie is evident in its ability to handle a wide variety of environmental demands, both efficiently and quickly. However, it can suffer catastrophic breakdowns when the core building blocks and protocols (the knot) are hijacked by parasites. These parasites can use access to the core to radically accelerate growth and gain new flexibility/adaptability. Eventually, other critical processes are crowded out and the entire system collapses.