Some interesting data points:
- Supply convoys bringing food/fuel/equipment from Pakistan to foreign forces in Afghanistan have been disrupted. Recent attacks on Khyber Pass truck stops destroyed 150 trucks (and US military equipment) as well as hundreds of containers. For those vehicles that have survived, looting is rampant as truckers cut deals with the "Taliban" (which is taking 30% off the top) to share in the loot. Now, the association of truckers that supplies 60-70% of the supplies has halted operations. It's important to realize that 20th Century armies are needy -- they need constant attention/coordination and vast volumes of supply. NOTE: Modern maneuver warfare was founded on the notion that if you can break into the enemies rear areas and quickly range out, you can disrupt these lines of supply/communication. Even small formations, a handful of tanks and a smart commander, can penetrate deep enough to force hundreds of thousands of disconnected enemy troops into headlong retreat. In today's environment, supplies, support, and reconstruction (a critical part of counter-insurgency) is handled by private companies. They are much easier to target and force into flight than uniformed troops (see Targeting Halliburton for more).
- Greek riots/protests have expanded to include fire bomb attacks on police buildings and banks. Root motivations? All over the map, it's chaotic (there isn't an ideological mechanism to organize it, random groups are acting in concert via stigmergic communication). However, this may the be first signs of the impact of rapidly falling expectations among the middle classes in Europe/US.
- The Mexican meltdown continues. Selective government/police officials are gunned down (the honest nodes in the government system are being shut down). A US kidnapping expert is kidnapped. Bloody firefights between rival gangs competing for wealth given an absence of government control. Much more. Sounds like open source warfare. It's getting worse and spreading to the rest of the country as the economy deteriorates. How to slow the chaos? Worst case is to cut a deal with a handful of gangs, give them legitimacy in exchange for maintaining order/rules (this will be at the expense of relations with the US but it will provide a level of controlled chaos akin to Iraq, the strategy for which I laid out in 2005).
- Am I Gandalf? A review of my presentation at the Boyd Conference by Robert Paterson.
- Great energy shortage site. Lists/maps energy incidents every day. Earlier shortages due to high input prices and infrastructure problems. Current problems: lack of financing for ongoing operations and impoverished customers.
- Symposium on Smith-Mundt run by Matt Armstrong. A public diplomacy COI.
- Re: the ongoing militarization of police forces. The NYPD is starting to train new recruits and existing units to use M4s.