The US economy is suffering its steepest downturn since at least the 1970s and could descend into a depression.
Jeff Immelt, CEO of General Electric on February 5th, 2009
One of the most difficult parts of a transition to resilient communities has to do with the tempo of the transition. This may help. The two dominant scenarios emerging for the global economy appear to be (a reversion to any approximation of the status quo ala 2006 is rapidly diminishing):
- Stagnation. Current efforts at stimulus and liquidity infusion stabilize the global economy. However, the economy is stuck at a the current level of activity with ~zero growth for a decade or more. High likelihood of the scenario eventually ending with a protracted depression.
- Depression. Policies fail. Complete economic meltdown and a new economic equilibrium at a small fraction of current economic activity levels.
For those involved in transitions to resilient communities, the best situation is obviously a period of extended stagnation. It allows an organic and self-financed transition towards local resilience and an orderly disconnection from the global system. In contrast, the depression scenario implies an onset rate that will overwhelm local planners with a tidal wave of foreclosures, bankruptcies, and civil unrest. Disconnection from the global system will be in large part involuntary and the development of resilient local platforms will be ad hoc and desperate.*
*NOTE: Global guerrilla proliferation in that scenario will be rapid and likely impossible to mitigate (no preparation) before it reaches critical mass/entrenched levels (as in, a functional bazaar of violence and extensive systems disruption). That eventuality would make for interesting times.