The world is rapidly moving towards protectionism as this article by the economist William Buiter details in The Financial Times (the current system, through Chinese currency manipulation, is already deeply protectionist however it was sanctioned protectionism). These actions, if not reversed, will almost certainly:
- Reduce legal global economic activity.
- Lower standards of living for nearly everyone.
- Create shortages and a plethora of market dysfunctions.
The beneficiaries of these actions will be smugglers of all types currently engaged in black (unsanctioned, criminal, grey market) globalization. Here's why:
- Instead of being restricted to universally illegal goods -- drugs, slaves/indentured servants, knock-off products, arms, and laundered money -- they will now be able to expand into nearly every good that has become protected. The current $2-3 Trillion global black market is poised to quadruple over the next decade.
- The communications and information systems necessary for global trade will likely remain intact. So the means to coordinate the production, sale, and delivery of contraband will still function at a high level of efficiency.
- The relationships between countries that are necessary to counter-act smuggling will be strained and dysfunctional. Further, almost all national relationships will become asymmetrical. It will often be in the interest of a country to turn a blind eye to the trade (since any economic activity is better than none).
Guerrilla Entrepreneurs Everywhere
Most global guerrilla groups have become increasingly focused on economic insurgency to the detriment of ideological motivations. The reasons are obvious: guerrillas that are economically able to self-finance are much more likely to survive long term and gain favor with local populations -- this income provides the means for the legitimacy jiu-jitsu necessary to create temporary autonomous zones (TAZs). The coming boom in black globalization will catalyze the spread of these groups even into areas in the West previously assumed immune. Unfortunately, unlike purely criminal organizations in the classic mold, these armed groups will actively compete with nation-states for local legitimacy.