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Saturday, 28 March 2009

JOURNAL: Prospects for Global Depression and Unrest

The respected Economist Intelligence Unit (part of what is arguably the best news/business magazine on the planet) has just published an important report entitled, "Manning the Barricades" (here's more..)  It's completely out of step with the Panglossian rhetoric that passes for economic analysis on Wall Street and in DC.  It comes up with the following outlook:

  • 60% Stimulus stabilizes economies in developed countries.
  • 30% Global depression. 
  • 10% Global depression w/ massive social upheaval. 
Additionally, the EIU estimated the potential for political unrest.  It places the US, UK, France, and China at a moderate risk of instability (see inset).

EIU Instability Index In sum, this is a decent report (although the analysis of how unrest plays out is very weak due to the use of legacy thinking).  The dire forecast it contains is as negative as a mainstream publication can go (based on my years of experience as a top rated analyst) without clashing disastrously with status quo interests.  The high potential of negative outcomes it projects, should serve as wake up to people that are thinking seriously about the future of warfare and community resilience. 

Posted at 12:53 PM in Journal |

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