GROWING AN INSURGENCY IN THE US

NOTE:  At little as a year ago, the prospect that the narco-insurgency raging in Mexico would successfully  expand into the southwestern US was remote.  That is not true to today.  The difference?   A black swan economic event has so completely destabilized the regional economy, that the existing social system is likely to fragment.  Here's a list of previous posts on this blog re: Mexico.

It appears that increasing militarization of both the US and Mexico's "war on drugs" is having an impact, although not what the governments had in mind.  The myriad of groups that are dependent on the narco/smuggling economy now consider the two governments to be more of a threat to their continued success than each other.  As a result, they are inevitably moving towards an agreement on a plausible promise for an open source insurgency.  

What is a plausible promise that could unite ~100,000 Mexican narco-guerrillas into an open source insurgency?  Simply:

To force the Mexican and US governments to cede de facto control over northern Mexico and Arizona/Southern California/New Mexico/Southern Texas.  

By itself, it's doubtful that a narco/smuggling open source insurgency could accomplish this goal, although it would make a very good run at it (particularly given the declining budgets of their opponents).  However, the prospects for successful achievement of the plausible promise would radically improve  if the coming global depression drives 

• the creation of new violent groups -- new primary loyalties formed from fear, revenge, and necessity -- and 
• the economic deprivation necessary for a vibrant bazaar of violence -- this is a marketplace that forms when, due to a need to purchase food and shelter, there is an endless pool of people willing to kill for a couple hundred bucks.

That circumstance, the arrival of new groups and millions of new participants willing to do anything for a buck, would accelerate this open source insurgency to the level necessary to paralyze both the Mexican and US militaries in short order.  Spread of the insurgency will be via hubs (cities) and spokes (suburbs) model of propagation.