Trends in energy production are higher costs of extraction (lower EROI, meaning more energy to extract energy), higher security costs (exogenous US military security efforts and more effective GG disruption), growing domestic consumption by energy producers (export land model), and depletion (peak oil, etc.). In sum, prices will continue to increase, likely spiking with each attempt at economic recovery. Some interesting items on the disruption front:
- Bunkering. Mexico's paramilitary/criminal group, the zetas, are moving into bunkering oil from PEMEX pipelines.
- Nigeria's oil output, under withering attacks by MEND, is losing 1.26 million bpd in production. Recent attacks on Shell facilities have been driven the global price for oil past $70 a barrel. Interesting that a disruptive shadow OPEC envisioned back in 2004, may through higher oil prices (abetted by hedge funds and investment banks), overcome government stimulus efforts to revive the economy.
- The misapplication of Chinese stimulus money (it's been flowing into speculation in commodities markets instead of jobs/companies), is likely to lead to China owning much of Iraq's oil. China, given it's laissez faire approach to genocide in Sudan (a major source of Chinese oil), might be a welcome primary economic/security partner for the Shiite government in Iraq given its need to ruthlessly stamp out Sunni militias (the awakening movement).
- The global guerrilla innovator Henry Okah to be released?