Here's some reading that may be of interest:
- Signs of "Privatopia" (my xmas 2007 article on the wholesale privatization of government function in the US): Arizona to sell House/Senate buildings and lease them back. Timeline appears to be on schedule.
- Wired interview with a "Pirate". Choice quote: "a single mission with 12 armed men and boats costs a little over $30,000. But a successful investor has to dispatch at least three or four missions to get lucky once."
- CSIS Cyber Challenge. "The US Cyber Challenge is looking for 10,000 young Americans with the skills to fill the ranks of cyber security practitioners, researchers, and warriors." Looks like open source cyberwarfare, although formally hiring them at the end of the process defeats the purpose of the exercise.
- A better term than irregular warfare for summing up conflicts with pirates, terrorists, insurgents, criminal gangs etc.? How about: "Ad hoc Warfare" Ad hoc is a Latin phrase which means "for this purpose". It generally signifies a solution designed for a specific problem or task, non-generalizable, and which cannot be adapted to other purposes. Sounds about right. What do you think?
- Strong argument that the militarization of Mexico's law enforcement is making things worse, and not better.
- Black Swan? Iran launched a satellite in February 2009 (which is "better" launch capability than a ICBM). As a result, William Forstchen and Gingrich argue that this capability + a small nuke = the potential of an airburst EMP attack on the US (which would wipe out most electrical circuitry and could generate a catastrophe -- see report) . Coming to a theater near you soon. ;->
- The "Talibanization" of Mexico's drug war? La Familia -- home grown "religion" and populist politics.
- A real example of a heart of darkness.
- Dragon Kings vs. Black Swans. Basically, the argument is that some Black Swans can turn into self-perpetuating systems due to feedback loops. These self-referencing systems cause more damage or grow to greater heights than any power law distribution would predict. I concur, but this sounds like Ilya Prigogine's "dissipative structures" theory. It may be a good explanation for what is going on now: a financial black swan has created feedback loops (as in: consumer behavior has shifted, potentially irrevocably...) that will create a dynamic that will sink the legacy global economy. The system may be bifurcating.
- Wars and Plagues key to Europe's Dominance? Lots of death in Europe led to higher per capita incomes due to a labor shortage. Higher incomes led to early industrialization. In a round about way, this makes the argument that mean per capita income growth may be the only real way to measure a society's potential for success (it's something we have failed at over the last 30 years, ergo: bleak future).
- Artificial life simulation: the intelligence of a complex system is measured by how many people it takes to shut it down. Does it work in reverse?