Some random items of interest:
- OIL. The price of oil is still over $80 a barrel even after a recession in the US. This means a couple of things. First, performance of the US economy doesn't dictate the price of oil anymore (it's now global). Even with this high price new oil production isn't coming online fast enough to replace rapid rates of depletion, which argues strongly that we have already reached peak oil production. Finally, any disruption of the oil market at this price level (for example: a restart of MEND's campaign in Nigeria or an ill advised adventure in Iran) would put oil well over $100 a barrel and drive the global economy into another deep contraction. This is a replay of 2004 but much worse given this starting point.
- As background for the item above see the 2004 posts on the Oil market: "A Window of Vulnerability" and "$100 Oil?". Oil demand is inelastic in the short term. Combine this with peak oil and even small amounts of disruption and the price skyrockets. A clue on what is in store: the 2008 financial crisis was set in motion by a global economic recession caused by an oil shock.
- Interesting new consumer index that uses real-time online retail info to show that the US consumer continues to retrench (which implies that a double dip start to show up next quarter ~ -1% GDP in Q2).
- Marketcetera. An open source high frequency trading (HFT) system. Nice. Why should Goldman and hedge funds have all the fun disrupting markets? Would be interesting to see what is possible when a HFT system like is combined with physical systems disruption.
- Disgruntled former employee used his loan company's remote controlled repo system to disable a hundred or so cars.
- Police department being targeted by booby traps in CA. "...a natural gas pipe was shoved through a hole drilled into the roof of the gang enforcement unit's headquarters."
