An ash cloud from an Icelandic volcano has shut down air travel in northern Europe. This event, or more precisely the far reaching impact of this event, is what's known as black swan. It wasn't an event we could fully anticipate or build plans against (even more so if it lasts a couple of months or on and off for years). The event, which has left tens of thousands of travelers stranded and essential products undelivered, is yet another demonstration of the perils of global interconnectivity without resilience.
An Age of Instability
Unfortunately, due to rapid growth in global interconnectivity, black swans like this (or worse) are going to occur more often and with greater amplitude. Why? With each new connection, the potential that a black swan (technological, natural, political, economic, financial, etc.) will have far reaching effects, increases. For more insight into this, read the new study by Buldyrev, et. al. entitled, "Catastrophic Cascade of Failures in Interdependent Networks". It demonstrates that within interdependent networks, an increase in average connectivity makes a cascading failure more likely.
So, what can we do to prevent instability? The solution isn't to formulate vague contingency plans or return to passive optimism. Obviously, that won't work. No, the solution is to improve our resilience to these systemic shocks through a social and economic transition that follows this simple formula:
- Localize production.
- Virtualize everything else.