Is is possible to replicate what happened in Tunisia in other countries, like Egypt?
Global guerrillas in Egypt are working on it. Here's what is going on:
- Numerous attempts at self-immoliation. Six in Egypt. These attempts at martyrdom are meant to symbolically spark revolution.
- Protests are being organized online. This one, called "day of revolt" and organized via Facebook, generated 16k supporters (although I suspect most of them are from people outside the country who are immune from retribution). The protest it sparked in Cairo resulted in three deaths and numerous clashes with Police.
- The Egyptian government is clamping down. It has already blocked access to Twitter.
A Plausible Promise
For an open source revolt (here's some background on "open source insurgency") to be successfully formed, it needs a plausible promise. A meta issue around which all of the different factions etc. can form (remember, most of the groups and individuals involved in an open source revolt can't agree on anything but some basic concepts). A generic "day of revolt" doesn't accomplish that. What could?
Using the multi-million scale No Mas FARC protests as an example and the critical ingredient in the Tunisian protests (extreme corruption that generated an endless wellspring of anger/frustration), a potential "plausible promise" for an Egyptian open source revolt is:
No More Corruption
Not only is a movement opposing corruption something the government will find hard to oppose, it is something every Egyptian deals with on a daily basis. It also has the added benefit of directly harming the entrenched ruling elite, who are likely to become poster children of the very thing the movement is against.
NOTE: I helped out DK Matai and his team at mi2g write a brief called "How do we achieve peace in a digitally driven, self-assembling society?" that's getting wide circulation in the mideast. You'll notice the GG themes throughout.
NOTE2: Facebook is now being blocked in Egypt. Will they turn off cell phones next?