EGYPT: Looting as Counter-Insurgency

Saturday, 29 January 2011

EGYPT: Looting as Counter-Insurgency

There have been a growing number of reports of looters/thugs conducting smash and grabs across Cairo. Interestingly, there's also a growing number of reports that when these thugs are caught, they have police/interior ministry identification on them. If this is so, the reasons for it are:

It tars the insurgency as a group of criminals and thugs.
It provides a reason for a reluctant army to get involved and enact a curfew.
It forces a percentage of the movement to stay at home (to guard the neighborhood).

This above has the potential to set the stage for a harsh response domestically. It could also help provide cover to the regime globally (hitting the Egyptian Museum was smart in this respect, given how many people around the world care much more for the artifacts there than the freedom of 80 m Egyptians).

The question is: will it work? A decade ago, certainly. Today? No way. Too much backchannel.

Posted at 12:54 PM | Permalink

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